The pandemic brought with it uncertainty and fear among Italians. Someone lost their job, someone had to bar the shutters of their business. Closed for Covid, it was said. From these elements a strong shock to the economy emerged. And the pensions they are not exempt from these problems. In fact, there would be a tears and blood plan under study by the government that could upset the world of social security. But let’s go in order.
The International Monetary Fund has estimated a surge of public debt up to 166% of GDP. Exorbitant figures. A lot of money that Brussels will ask us back sooner or later. Yes, because both the interventions carried out by the European Central Bank and the aid put on the table by the EU (from Mes to Sure via Bei), sooner or later will end or exhaust their beneficial effects. What will happen at that point? According to European bureaucrats, we will have to tighten the belt.
In September the Minister of Economy, Roberto Gualtieri, will deliver to the European Commission a program to repay excess debt produced during the darkest period of the coronavirus emergency. The premises of the National Reform Program, which the government is about to approve and send to Brussels, are clear: “Although the European resources that will become available for the revitalization of the economy are impressive, the financial compatibility must not be neglected”. In other words, added Gualtieri, “the government will develop a strategy to repay the high public debt”.
What will be the strategy adopted by the executive to reduce debt and satisfy Brussels is soon said. On the one hand, we find economic growth that should start again thanks to EU funds. On the other hand, everything will be played on improving the primary balance: less public expenditure and increased income from taxation. Other fees.
Therefore, a real one would be in the pipeline spending review also accompanied by an increase in taxes on polluting activities and a cut in tax deductions and deductions. As regards taxes, there is talk of a tax reform to restore breath to the middle class and families with children. The idea could be to review the different rates personal income tax at work. To conclude, there is the will to continue on the path that leads to the Web tax and on that of the enhancement of the state’s real estate assets.
And in this context, a retouching of pensions cannot be ruled out. Once again – after 2011 with the “tears and blood” reform approved by the Monti government – pensions they could be used to make cash. In 2011 reform seemed necessary. The then Minister of Labor, Elsa Fornero, said: “Without reform it would not be possible to pay all pensions”. This time it could be the health and economic emergency that has forced us to cut back. Until a few months ago, unions and the government were discussing how to make the Italian pension system more flexible. Now the scenario has changed. And if there is a reform, it will only be to save on public finances.
In the Relaunch Plan, announced with great pomp by the premier Giuseppe Conte to General states, with which the Giallorossi government should use the resources arriving with the Recovery Fund, there are several goals to achieve. Measures to revive the economy. But in the same project there will also be a program to repay the public debt which is expected to last approximately 10 years. This is because, as stated in the document prepared by the government: “Italy’s high public debt represents a brake on economic growth as well as a heavy burden on public finance”.
And now we come to the numbers. Pensions will face reductions, especially for workers who choose the early retirement. For all of them, who have a gross starting salary of 15 thousand euros every year, it has been hypothesized (according to a simulation of the Sole 24 Ore) a first INPS registration at the age of 25 and a retirement at 67 with a final gross salary of 30 thousand euros. Therefore assuming a contribution increase over the years. If the hypothetical pre-Covid pension were considered, according to age, the gross annual figure would be between 20,305 and 23,264 euros. Subsequently, everything was projected by introducing the new conversion coefficients. That is, the impact of the reduction of Pil assuming a 10% drop and one percent future growth per year.
Going to the heart of the problem it emerges that the poor retirees they will lose 5.5% of the pension amount. They are not crumbs. It is yet another state cleaver. A “legalized theft” that will once again hit those who have produced and worked for a lifetime. Their pockets are in danger.
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