REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA — The sun is a very reliable star and is the main source for the earth. From a distance, the Sun always appears stable and calm, even though in fact, the Sun experiences various periods that are far from calm.
Lecturer in Astronomy from Nottingham Trent University, Daniel Brown, explained that up close, the Sun shows enormous variations and activity. The so-called bright explosion flare regularly cause outbreak huge radiation. The darker, cooler areas are called spots sun appear, move, change shape, and disappear.
The sun also releases material into space in powerful eruptions, called solar particle events (SPE). This solar activity varies according to time of day. The peak occurs once every 11 years, and the next peak is expected to occur in July 2025.
“However, the period when the sun reaches its peak or so-called Solar Maximum will arrive earlier than expected. “This finding can give us a better understanding of the star,” Brown said as reported Science AlertMonday (30/10/2023).
To be able to predict solar activity and mitigate impacts, Brown said, requires a set of rules and a scientific model. NASA and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have been creating them for years.
They combine various methods to predict solar activity. This approach has resulted in a date for the next Solar Maximum around July 2025. This peak is also expected to be relatively weak, like the Solar Maximum in the previous solar cycle which occurred around December 2008 to December 2019, with a peak in April 2014.
However, an alternative estimate has been published by a team led by NASA scientist Robert Leamon and Scott McIntosh, deputy director at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). They say that the peak of the solar cycle will occur a year earlier in mid-late 2024 and the number of sunspots will be twice as high as official predictions – an indication of activity.
What is interesting is that many prediction methods rely on the length of the cycle as measured by the minimum point (lowest point) of solar activity. However, Leamon and McIntosh looked at actual sunspots and their magnetic properties in more depth.
So, what is the impact if the sun is in its maximum phase or solar maximum? According to Brown, when the Sun releases large amounts of energy in the form of flares and other events that throw material into space, it is possible that some of that energy will hit Earth. Luckily, Earth has a magnetic shield that can protect us.
When particles and magnetic fields from the Sun reach Earth, they first interact with Earth’s magnetic field. It also forces the Sun’s particles to move in a way determined by the Earth’s magnetic field.
“This keeps the particles trapped to some extent, preventing them from hitting the Earth’s surface,” Brown said.
Although Earth’s magnetic “shield” provides us with a degree of protection, solar activity still affects us. An example is the northern (or southern) lights. This occurs when solar particles reach high in the atmosphere and “excite” the atoms there, causing them to move into a high energy state.
“When the atoms relax, they emit light in different colors – for example red, green and blue. “This stunning view is ideally viewed from close to our planet’s magnetic poles,” Brown said.
As populations grow, humans become increasingly dependent on electricity infrastructure. Humans are also expanding our technology into space – technology that is vulnerable if we don’t monitor space weather and its source, the Sun.
“If we know what’s going to happen, we can be prepared. “The power grid is designed to be less susceptible to power surges and the satellites are designed to better withstand space weather,” Brown said.
Experts already keep detailed records of past observations, and continue to develop methods for observing the Sun and space weather using satellites. Currently, experts are also developing scientific models to predict solar activity.
2023-10-30 05:46:41
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