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Scientists and institutions monitoring the so-called space weather reports for the next few days, the arrival of a G3 geomagnetic storm, which corresponds to “severe” storms according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scale.
The first one should arrive on Friday. The second, caused by the stronger of the pair of eruptions, then on Sunday.
Such severe storms commonly cause radio outages and less severe problems (or the need for countermeasures) on high-voltage power line systems.
Navigational signals may also be affected and the area where the aurora can occur will expand.
Aurora over the Czech Republic?
According to astronomer Michal Švanda, this time there is a “decent” chance that the aurora borealis will also appear over the Czech Republic.
Photographer and astronomer Petr Horálek also agrees with this. “The first eruption of class X7.1 occurred on October 2 at 20 minutes after midnight, the second – even stronger – X9.1 on Thursday at 14:18 CEST. Both of them produced plasma clouds traveling partly towards the Earth, and the latter in particular should cause strong auroras especially from Saturday to Sunday,” he explained.
However, astronomers point out that predictions of the arrival of magnetic storms are never 100% reliable and can be wrong by several hours, so the time must be taken as a guide. In the same way, the area where the storm will be strongest cannot be more accurately estimated in advance.
They also point out that the weather forecast brings bad news for aurora enthusiasts and photographers. According to her, most of the territory of the Czech Republic should be cloudy over the weekend, so it is quite possible that even if the aurora borealis appears over the Czech Republic, it will not be visible through the clouds.
Video capturing the current solar flare:
Damage is expected to be minimal
In terms of possible damage, no catastrophe is expected from the G3 storm. It is true that the second of the eruptions was the strongest in many years, but the storm itself is not predicted to be that special (of course, it can change if another strong eruption comes).
According to NOAA, an average of 200 G3 geomagnetic storms occur per solar cycle, which lasts 11 years. The technology on our planet and its operators therefore have quite a lot of experience with such events.
The Earth experienced a stronger storm last May, when forecasts warned of a G4 level. At that time, the aurora borealis was observed by people across the Czech Republic, but there were no serious problems with electronics or navigation on a global level.
There are a number of reasons why an exceptionally strong eruption does not necessarily mean a strong geomagnetic storm. It depends, for example, on the place where the eruption will occur (and thus the direction of the material ejection) or the conditions in space.
The power of a geomagnetic storm can sometimes be amplified by the so-called cannibal effect, when material from an earlier eruption is conveniently “made” to travel through space by another eruption, which can then pick up even more speed. In such a case, it can happen that a later mass ejection on its way to the Earth “overtakes” the material from previous ejections and hits with even greater force.
What can the sun do? We don’t know
The strongest solar flare to date (probably stronger than magnitude five) observed by magnetic observatories occurred on September 1, 1859, when historical records show that auroras were only seen in the Caribbean or Bombay, India, and the telegraph suffered a massive outage.
According to Švanda, what such a strong eruption would cause in modern times with all electronics is still a subject of discussion.
According to him, the catastrophic scenario talks about a total blackout lasting years, the optimistic scenario about negligible damage and the “sober” scenario is “somewhere in between”.
According to Švanda, it is also not well known how often such a strong eruption can occur (Švanda discusses the topic in detail in this older interview).
