The period is well known to meteorologists and gardeners: the Ice Saints, from May 11 to 13, sometimes marked by a return of frost. Except that this year, the ice is going to melt… while a summer heat wave is looming for next week. Not a heat wave either, especially as the night temperatures will remain cool, but 30 degrees should be approached or reached over a good part of the territory, warns meteorologist François Jobard on Twitter.
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“The weather will gradually warm up from the weekend. Next week, the highs will frequently reach levels close to the averages for the summer months,” confirms Météo France. “With the powerful sun in May, at the beginning of next week, the 25 degree mark will be reached in a large number of regions. Thereafter, temperatures are expected to gain a few more degrees, and next week could be increasingly hot, with highs between 25 and 30 degrees over much of the country.
Tuesday afternoon, it will be 26 degrees in Nancy, Metz, Strasbourg, Dijon, Chalon-sur-Saône, Lyon or Grenoble.
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“It will be a heat wave since some regions will experience 3 to 5 consecutive days of heat”, decrypts The Weather Channel. From Monday, it will be 25 to 28 degrees south of the Loire, then the 25 will be exceeded on Tuesday and Wednesday on “80% of the territory”. “The feeling will sometimes become painful with perceived temperatures which will reach 30 to 35 degrees on 2/3 of the territory due to the humidity”. But the nights will remain cool, unlike high summer.
Overall, the aggregate average temperature at the national level (on 32 weather stations) will be around 20 degrees for several days, which is exceptional at this time, as forecaster Alexandre Flouttard points out on Twitter. You have to go back to 1998 to have such an average over four days, and to 2012 over a single day.
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In 1998, the threshold of “high heat” (30 degrees) had been reached for three days in a row at this time as far as Paris and Lille!
When will this heat wave end? There is still uncertainty. “Some models indeed see the persistence of high pressures and the flow from the south over the whole of France, which would have the effect of keeping the heat in the north, but the reliability is still limited at this time”, reports La Chaîne. Weather report.
/data/photo/2022/05/06/6274c240db06b.jpg "BMKG’s Analysis of the Causes of Recent Hot Weather")