A photographic illustration of pirated music being illegally uploaded to the legal music service iTunes in the background in London, England.
Matthew Lloyd Getty Images
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2021 will be a completely different year for cinema. In hopes of making profits from big budget blockbusters, studios turned to new methods of filmmaking.
For Warner Bros. The pandemic forced parent company AT&T to release all of its films in theaters and on HBO Max on the same day. Universal, owned by Comcast, has decided to enter into contracts with individual theaters to reduce the time their films spend in theaters before switching to premium on-demand videos.
Then there are those like Disney, which has most of their films for the most part due for 2021
moved and put a handful on their own streaming service.
But box office analysts won’t be the only ones closely monitoring the performance of these films over the next year. Piracy experts look forward to how these new publishing methods will affect illegal broadcasting.
“It’s a dream to be a data science researcher,” said Brett Dunacher, professor of entertainment analysis and data science at Chapman University. “It’s such a wonderful experiment.”
Heading into 2021, piracy experts told CNBC that they have theories about how pirates will react to these different models, but aren’t entirely sure what will happen.
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What we know about piracy
On the one hand, piracy is difficult to track. Experts can track some large pirated downloads, but once this file is downloaded it can be distributed and given privately to thousands of other viewers.
It is also why experts cite a range of things piracy may cost the US economy, rather than an exact number. Last year, the Global Center for Innovation Policy estimated that global cyber piracy cost the US economy between $ 29.9 billion and $ 71 billion a year.
But people who are involved in piracy can learn a lot. Looking at the data, experts like Andy Chatterley, CEO and co-founder of MUSO, the global body on digital piracy, can bring information to media companies around the world.
For one, Chatterley noted that the more noise around the blockbuster, the more piracy it will see. Movies carried out by major marketing campaigns and limiting demand from fans and many media outlets will lead to more illegal online downloads.
MUSO data also suggests that piracy flares up when better versions of films are available on pirate sites. For example, “Bad Boys for Life” hit theaters in January and saw a “pretty gentle” amount of piracy, Chatterley said. However, when it became available for video-on-demand in mid-March, there was a surge in online piracy.
Conversely, Disney’s Mulan, who switched to streaming video immediately, saw a massive surge on the day of its release and then worked overtime.
“The piracy has been charged,” said Chatterley. “But piracy wasn’t necessarily bigger and smaller.”
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How to prevent illegal downloads
For companies like AT&T, which release high-quality versions of films on day one, there are several ways to curb piracy. For example, the film went international in theaters and on HBO Max two weeks before the debut of “The Wonderful Woman 1984” in North America.
This allowed viewers to see the film in theaters for the first time before a high quality copy appeared on pirate sites. This is especially important as HBO Max is only a domestic product now.
“Of course there are people who will always be pirates,” said Michael Smith, professor of information technology and marketing at Carnegie Mellon University. “People who bother you are people who legally bought your content but found it [piracy] more convenient “.
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People in masks walk past the billboard for the film “Wonderful Woman 1984”. Photo taken on December 26th, 2020
Simon Sheen | SOPA pictures | LightRocket via Getty Images
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Smith said that most of the people who engage in piracy do so because they have no other legal way to consume the product. If these viewers were given an easier legal way, they would pay to see the film.
While online piracy can have a negative financial impact on media companies, the data gathered by experts can also help these companies determine what their audience wants to see. Data from groups like MUSO can tell companies which films or TV shows they need to buy or license at home or abroad.
For example, the European Union’s Intellectual Property Office found that “The Mummy” was disproportionately pirated in Spain and the TV show “South Park” was a popular illegal download in Finland.
This information tells Universal that Mummy may become more available in Spain and Viacom and may wish to enter into a contract with the Finnish streaming service.
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What could happen in 2021
As Danacher said, 2021 will be a big experiment for the industry when it comes to piracy. For the first time, there are different release strategies that occur simultaneously and over a long period of time.
Even if some headlines are more popular than others, the data should show trends that show how people are applying their entertainment.
As last year, it will be difficult for experts to determine the obvious financial impact, especially as the pandemic is likely to affect the way people watch certain movies. Those who cannot go to the movies can broadcast legally when available, but instead choose illegal methods for big movies.
When premium video on demand becomes an opportunity to buy earlier than usual, it may not immediately become clear whether on demand buying or piracy is cannibalizing theater revenues.
“Unfortunately I can’t tell you who will win the races,” said Danacher.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.
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