par Baptiste Lambert
posted on tuesday 04 july 2023 at 17:55 •
4 min read
The US bank believes that behind the steepest inversion in the Treasury yield curve is a sharp drop in inflation, not a recession.
Why is this important?
The inversion of the yield curve of 2-year and 10-year Treasury bills is the best indicator to predict a recession. This indicator successfully anticipated the downturns of 1999, 2001 and 2008, for example. imminent.
In the news : The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields widened further, the largest inversion in 40 years.
The reason ? Investors are betting on further interest rate hikes from the Fed, while the consensus established until then was betting on a pause. Then there shouldn’t be a rate cut until next January. Investors were hoping for the drop to come sooner, d
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2023-07-04 15:55:17
#Hope #reborn #United #States #sharp #drop #inflation #recession #Bank #America
