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Khaled Abu Shakra
Yesterday the deadline granted by the Lebanese state to the third partner of the oil consortium, “Novatek”, to renounce its share expired. According to a university professor specializing in energy issues, Dr. Charbel Skaff. But it looks like the state won’t keep it up for long. On the same day, Energy Minister Walid Fayyad expressed Qatar’s desire for solutions as a third partner in the coalition. The haste to renounce the share of the state is not due only to the material obligations it has to assume, but also to strategic reasons that the state takes into account.
“According to the law, the state has the right to maintain this quota, or to voluntarily assign it to a qualified company, approved by the Council of Ministers. In both cases there are pros and cons. The permanence of the state as a partner increases its profits. future, in the event that oil and gas are available in commercial quantities. However, on the other hand, the partnership requires it to fund the drilling of wells first, and then contribute to the development of the discovered field, “says Skaf. and “if we assume that the cost of drilling a well is between 70 and 80 million dollars, the state has to bear the beginning of 20% of the cost, or an amount between 14 and 16 million dollars, but if the resources are available, the material needs related to rehabilitation, towing, transport and other technical issues will increase “.
State ownership of 20% of the oil consortium may not mean the achievement of a high economic remuneration in the event that it decides to sell it to third parties, especially since the exploration operations have not yet started, and there is not yet on the ground any tangible physical evidence of the availability of oil or gas in commercial quantities. As a result, the process of giving up this percentage, even if it is free to third parties, can be more profitable for the state. On the one hand, it speeds up the start-up of drilling and exploration operations, and on the other hand it alleviates the state of costs that it is unable to bear today or even in the future. However, according to Skaf, “whether the third party is from Qatar or not, this means that there is a positive vision for the future of the oil and gas industry in Lebanon, especially since the first phase of research and exploration costs a lot. of money and does not generate revenues “.
Ultimately, well-informed circles view the decision to acquire 20% of the state as strategic, and there is no harm in keeping it at least until a positive discovery is made. Then, yields soar by 20% if the state decides to keep it or dispose of it, but the decision ultimately rests with the government’s oil policy.
