(Zhang Guangwen/Interview Report) The demand for the Lunar New Year holiday has driven a continuous surge in overseas travel searches and bookings, and outbound travel bookings have increased significantly. At present, almost half of Chinese outbound tourists go to Thailand, and most of them are just-needed business and individual tourists. Thailand is expected to become the biggest winner after the recovery of Chinese outbound tourism.
Ctrip data analysis shows that compared with last year, overseas travel during the Lunar New Year holiday in 2023 will increase by 540%, and the average cost of bookings will also increase by 32% year-on-year. As of January 12, 2023, the overall booking volume of Chinese tourists traveling to Southeast Asian countries has increased by 1026% compared with the same period last year, and the booking volume of air tickets alone has increased by 864% year-on-year. Among them, from December 27 to January 11, Thailand has become the preferred destination for Chinese tourists during the Spring Festival holiday. Similarly, according to Fliggy data, the number of international air ticket bookings in the past week has more than tripled year-on-year. At the same time, bookings for outbound travel during the Spring Festival rebounded sharply, hitting a peak in nearly three years. Bookings to destinations in Asia accounted for more than 50% of the total, among which, bookings to destinations in Thailand surged nearly 20 times.
Cirium, an aviation data analysis company, also observed that Thailand has already been the preferred destination for Chinese tourists in 2019. Thailand ranked seventh in the number of flights tracked from January 8-16 this year. Optimistically, many Chinese airlines have been approved to increase the flights between China and Thailand from the original 15 flights per week to 20 flights per day in the first quarter. Shanghai travel agency operators believe that Thailand is expected to become the biggest winner after the recovery of China’s outbound travel.
In order to welcome the return of Chinese tourists, recently,Anutin Charnviraku, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Health of ThailandL led a number of senior government officials to Bangkok International Airport to welcome the first batch of tourists from China, and posted a video on social media to celebrate the New Year in Chinese, emphasizing that Thais love Chinese friends. At the same time, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) and the Thailand Convention and Exhibition Bureau (TCEB) shouted “China is back” through WeChat channels, welcoming Chinese tourists to visit and travel. All these have boosted the favorability of Chinese tourists towards Thailand, and also led to the recovery of Thailand tourism, making it the most popular destination for outbound tourists during the Spring Festival. Since December 27, 2022, among the hotel orders booked by Ctrip for more than 20 days, hotel orders in Thailand accounted for 44%. The volume of bookings for four- and five-star hotels in Thailand has also quickly recovered to 40% of the same period before the epidemic.
China outbound market to pick up strongly in 2Q
However, the vice president of insights and analysis at ForwardKeys reminded that although international tourism may rebound for the first time in three years during the Spring Festival, it will still take longer to see the total number of Chinese outbound tourists taking off again. Low passenger loads, expensive air tickets, multi-country implementation of pre-boarding coronavirus testing regulations, and backlogs in passport and visa applications are all challenges that travel industry operators now need to face. He expects China’s outbound market to pick up strongly in the second quarter, when airlines can arrange capacity for the spring and summer seasons, including holidays in May, Dragon Boat Festival in June and summer vacations.
Zhao Wenzhi, President of GuangzhilvSaid that the outbound travel business has recovered steadily, the demand for outbound travel during the winter holidays and Spring Festival has increased significantly, and Southeast Asian countries are the most popular. At present, the post-year exit consultation sheets received are mainly from enterprises and institutions, and the main purpose of travel is to participate in overseas exhibitions and negotiate business orders for business trips. The tourism industry in Beijing, who is full of expectations for 2023, believes that outbound tourism will pick up at an accelerated pace, and a clear rebound trend will be seen at the earliest on May 1 this year, but it will show very extreme unevenness in temperature and temperature, and it will be difficult to return to 2019 in the short term. It is not easy to recover to 30% to 40% of the pre-epidemic level throughout the year. It is expected that the destinations of outbound travel will be concentrated in Asia and surrounding regions, especially policy-friendly destinations that have no special restrictions on the entry of Chinese tourists, such as Thailand, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, etc.
Looking forward to outbound tourism in 2023,Dr. Wolfgang Georg Arlt, CEO of China Outbound Tourism Research Institute (COTRI) and Founding Dean of the Institute, HATT Business SchoolIt is suggested that Chinese tourists will be more interested in experiences and activities, and the consumer market will also be clearly segmented, with more complex needs and special interests. Therefore, tourism destinations can focus on strengthening the promotion of gourmet experiences, movie locations, sports competitions and special festivals.
