Lebanon will be presidentless on October 31 if major influencers fail to reach an agreement to elect a successor to the president, Michel Aoun, raising the possibility of a presidential vacuum amid a deep financial crisis.
The office of president has been vacant several times since the 1975-1990 civil war. The office is occupied only by a Maronite Christian, according to the Lebanese sectarian system, which makes the election of the president very difficult. So what is at stake? And who are the candidates?
What is the reason for the extreme complexity?
The president of Lebanon is elected by secret ballot by the 128 parliamentarians of the parliament, equally divided between Muslim and Christian sects.
But the minimum votes required mean that no single faction or coalition has enough seats to force its choice into polarizing Lebanese politics.
This links the process to complex bargaining on broader issues, including the division of seats in the new government that takes office after the new president is sworn in.
The powerful Shiite group Hezbollah, which plays an increasingly large role in the government, said consensus must be reached on a candidate, which in effect requires the group’s approval.
The presidency remained vacant for 29 months before Aoun, a Hezbollah ally, became head of state in a 2016 deal that saw Sunni politician Saad Hariri return to the post of prime minister.
International competitions, which have long played a role in local crises in Lebanon, can also complicate the process.
Hezbollah and its allies have close ties to Shia-led Iran and Syria, while their Christian and Sunni opponents turn to the West and Sunni-led Arab Gulf states.
Aoun’s predecessor, Michel Suleiman, took office in 2008 with a brokered deal in Qatar that avoided a power struggle between Hezbollah and its Saudi-backed and Western-backed allies and rivals.
What does this mean for the financial crisis?
The ruling elite failed to address the financial crisis that plunged many into poverty and prevented depositors from accessing their savings in an inactive banking system for three years.
And the vacancy of the office of president could exacerbate the complexity of the processing phases.
In the event of a vacuum, presidential powers will pass to the government led by the Sunni Najib Mikati. However, Prime Minister Mikati’s government has limited itself to conducting business since the parliamentary elections in May.
Analysts say this means it is incapable of making big decisions that include international agreements.
This could complicate finalizing a draft agreement with the International Monetary Fund to provide much-needed help, assuming the politicians in power eventually implement the long-awaited reforms needed to seal the deal.
Deputy Prime Minister Saad al-Shami said Lebanon could still submit its progress to the International Monetary Fund board of directors for funding review and approval, but was unsure how much the final deal would need. of presidential approval.
Who could eventually become president?
The Maronite community is more politically divided than other sects in Lebanon, which has led to the emergence of many presidential aspirants.
One of the candidates, Suleiman Franjieh, an ally of Hezbollah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Franjieh was considered a strong contender until the Shia group and its allies lost their parliamentary majority in May.
And Hezbollah has not yet announced its support for anyone.
Anti-Hezbollah MP Michel Moawad has won the most votes in four unsuccessful presidential elections so far, but the number of votes has not been enough to win.
The last three presidents of Lebanon were former army commanders and the army chief, General Joseph Aoun, is seen as a possible compromise candidate.
But analysts and political sources say it will face opposition, especially from Maronite politician Gebran Bassil, President Aoun’s son-in-law, who aspires to win the presidency.
