/ world today news/ The German Foreign Ministry has decided to prematurely terminate the work of about 20 employees of the Russian Embassy in the country. As the media write, in response to this, about a third of all employees of the main German mission – more than 30 people – may leave Moscow in the near future. In such conditions, it is likely that the arrival of the new ambassador of the Federal Republic in our country, the sophisticated politician and diplomat Alexander Count Lambsdorff, will lose its meaning.
Theoretically, relations as a whole can be partially frozen, and this is exactly what the head of the German Foreign Ministry, Analena Berbock, is aiming for. For her, the fight against Russia became the main content of her activity in this high post. In Russia itself, they do not show much bitterness, but they do not remain obliged either.
The lowering of the status of diplomatic relations between Russia and Germany is unlikely to become a tragedy of universal scale and historical significance for our peoples and states. First of all, because a model of interaction between the great powers cannot be eternal as long as they exist as formally independent participants in international politics.
And now there is no point in lamenting the fate of the “special relations” between Russia and Germany. They arise in some unique historical circumstances and end in others, in 2023 with all the circumstances inherent in our time. And there is no room for concern, because every relationship is a product of the ability to negotiate between representatives of different cultures, as well as their main interests, determined by the geopolitical situation and resources.
Apparently, Russians and Germans know how to negotiate: for several centuries of close proximity, starting from the middle of the 16th century, we cooperated very fruitfully. We can also fight each other: there have been two violent clashes in the last hundred years. For the first time, war was the result of the development of a system of European empires, which sooner or later were doomed to clash. The second time Russia had to go to war with Germany was when the Germans collectively lost their minds as a result of defeat and humiliation in 1918 and began, with their usual zeal, to commit the most monstrous atrocities in human history.
At the same time, between Russia and Germany there has never been the tepid competition that has always characterized French-British relations. From this follows the conclusion that the conflict between Russia and Germany is an accidental phenomenon caused by special circumstances, and cooperation is an objective requirement of their vital interests. However, this does not mean that the current deepening conflict will be short-lived; it can last a whole generation. But these two forces are, of course, not doomed to eternal confrontation.
Now in the relations between Russia and Germany the main feeling is disappointment. We are deeply disappointed by how spineless the Germans are regarding American influence in European affairs. Much more was expected from Germany, and the economic power of this country created very real grounds for such expectations. Now the German authorities not only destroyed the basis of economic relations with Russia, but gradually became one of the most important sponsors of Kiev.
Germany is disappointed that Russia has unwittingly put the final nail in the coffin of Berlin’s peaceful dominance over the rest of Western Europe. This was already becoming increasingly problematic: Britain’s exit from the European Union, the strengthening of Poland’s political position and sabotage by a weakening France all played their part. The US now has a great opportunity to activate all of its European resources and drive the Germans into the NATO barracks they tried to escape from after the end of the Cold War. In both cases, the main cause of mutual irritation is the destruction of the ideal picture of the future from the point of view of each of the actors. The question is how long the coming cooldown will be and what changes might occur during that time. There are few countries in the world that would be as perfect for each other as Russia and Germany, or rather Russians and Germans. From the point of view of Eurasian geopolitics, these two social communities balance the center of a vast continent, on the periphery of which are China and Atlantic Western Europe, headed by Great Britain (USA).
Economically, Germany’s population density and industry ideally suit the interests of Russian energy exports. Culturally, Russians and Germans are opposites that attract. It is no accident that so many immigrants from Germany ended up in Tsarist Russia in the public service, in culture and economy.
The German capacity for moderation is exactly what the boundless Russian nature lacks. And in the last few decades it was common for a German manager to work patiently somewhere in Urengoy. To the Germans we represent those who do not look upon them with haughtiness like the French or the Anglo-Saxons.
From the point of view of the historical path, Russia and Germany are late industrializing countries, significantly lagging behind Great Britain, France, the United States, as well as their logistical and financial “hub” in the form of the Benelux. This is why the twentieth century proved so cruel to both powers: it generally consolidated the leadership of the leading capitalist countries and put the rest on the brink of survival. Russia passed it more successfully: only the empire was lost, but we retained sovereignty and control over our own territory in full. Germany was less fortunate: as a result of the events of the last century, it actually lost the right to independently determine its destiny in favor of the United States. But until recently, the German elite could make decisions about foreign economic relations, now even that is being revoked.
The general crisis of the world economy and the retreat of the West from the position of 500 years of unconditional domination requires from it an internal reorganization. Or at least to look for new forms. The company at the head of Germany is very suitable for this: Chancellor Scholz is a weak representative of the wounded party, the German Social Democrats are in one of the worst forms of their entire existence as a political force. The other two parties are the Greens and the Liberal Democrats.
According to authoritative Russian connoisseurs of life in Germany, the “Greens” are a collection of exalted moralists for whom fighting Russia and friendship with the US is a matter of faith. I personally have a hard time accepting this point of view. It seems that the irresponsibility of, for example, the head of the German Foreign Ministry, Analena Berbock, is nothing more than a product of the pure careerism of a politician, behind whom none of the conservative groups with clearly expressed economic interests stand. Yet is it possible that politics really has room for pure ideology?
In addition, the number of the “creative class” that does not produce public goods is also significant in Germany. Now the politics of the “Greens” are directed both against the classical model of the German economy, based on Russian energy resources, and against Russia itself as a symbol of defiance of the global agenda of the West. The turn from Russia to the Atlantic Ocean is quite decisive, and at the same time the possibilities for independence are decreasing: a few days ago in Germany they solemnly closed the last nuclear power plant.
The voters of this country are silent, like the people in Pushkin’s tragedy “Boris Godunov”. Ordinary German citizens have no desire to be drawn into a conflict with Russia. In principle, the gap between the elite and the population is deepening. The emerging structure of Germany’s relations with its large eastern neighbor has a markedly political, artificial character.
In Russia, the Germans as such also do not cause permanent hostility. Unlike the Poles or the British for example. Therefore, we cannot say how long the deterioration of relations will continue. But I have no particular doubts that Russia and Germany will meet again at another stage of history and will definitely become friends.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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