Dr. Cristian Oancea, the medical director of the “Victor Babeş” Infectious Diseases and Pneumoftiziology Hospital in Timişoara, believes that the only solution to get through the 3rd wave of the pandemic and to mitigate the impact of the next wave is vaccination.
“We do not learn anything from history: the Spanish flu had 4 waves. This wave 3 will last about 2-3, maximum 4 months. I have seen it in England and the Czech Republic: it is coming strong and it will go strong, depending on how many victims it will leave. We must continue with vaccination in force. We have seen 15 states that have given up vaccination with AstraZeneca, but also count the dozens of states that continue vaccination with AstraZeneca. If we follow our vaccination plan, we can have an fall in which we can slowly begin to regain our lives. If we continue with the vaccination in force, wave 4 will be slow, according to Dr. Cristian Oancea.
SARS-CoV-2 could cause fewer casualties as it spreads further, according to historian John M. Barry, author of a paper on the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. The American researcher analyzed how the transmission of the flu virus has evolved since then, compared to the spread of the new coronavirus. Keeping the proportions related to the peculiarities between the two pathogens – the H1N1 flu virus and the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 -, the historian’s conclusions show that, overall, Spanish flu mortality has faded with the widespread spread of the disease, but people have had to to continue living with the new threat.
The author of “The Great Influenza” suggests that the same could happen with the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The mutations that the 1918 influenza virus underwent in the spread process had two On the one hand, repeated changes at the micro-molecular level have prevented scientists since then from creating a vaccine against Spanish flu, and on the other hand, these mutations have resulted in a significant decrease in the number of dead.
The chief epidemiologist of the United States, Dr. Anthony Fauci, published in 2009 an article with two researchers specializing in the spread of influenza viruses in which they showed that the viral strain responsible in 1918 for the spread of Spanish flu created a “pandemic era” in the last century.
“All the pandemics that have taken place since then – in 1957 (no – H2N2, Asian flu), in 1968 (no – H3N2) and in 2009 (no – AH1N1 or swine flu) were generated by viruses derived from the one responsible for the flu The flu virus that people get every year can be directly linked to the Spanish flu virus, “researcher Jeffery Taubenberger told the Washington Post.
Doctor: For what reason could the cases at ATI be doubled
Dr. Cristian Oancea, the medical director of the “Victor Babeş” Infectious Diseases and Pneumoftiziology Hospital in Timişoara, is of the opinion that the number of serious cases from ATI could double due to the lack of facilities in hospitals.
“An aspect that is not discussed: there are beds that require oxygen therapy with medium and high flow. If you do not provide these patients with medium or high flow oxygen, they will quickly go into severe forms and will quickly enter intensive care. So it is possible to have a doubling of the number of cases in intensive care compared to wave 2. At ATI we are talking in a first phase about that portable concentrator for mild to moderate forms. From moderate to severe forms, oxygen therapy is needed in medium and high flow storers. If the hospitals do not have a medium and high oxygen flow, these cases, due to the aggressiveness of the British strain we are facing now, become severe forms within 7-10 days and you have nowhere to take them except to the ATI “, said the doctor.
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