If something confirms each and every one of the omens about the evolution of GDP, it is that phrase attributed to the Danish physicist Niels Bohr who says that “it is very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” Any football fan who ever played the pool knows well that no matter how logical the results may seem a priori, surprises always arise that condemn the ticket to the wastebasket. Whether it is an Eibar goal at the Bernabéu with the time expired, or a referee error in Balaídos, any unforeseen event is good to destroy the hopes that a full take the bettor out of the mortgage hole or the lack of employment. An example that can be extrapolated to the march of Spain and its hopes of recovery after the covid. The generalization of vaccines and the lifting of restrictions on mobility triggered optimism that consumption would begin to flow strongly, putting everything accumulated under the mattress into circulation while the country was paralyzed and sending the unleashed fears to the trunk of memories for the pandemic. At the head of optimism, how could it be otherwise, the president appeared Pedro Sanchez and his Government, which contemplates in its Budgets a rise in wealth of 6.5% for this year and 7% for 2022. An important growth, without a doubt, although it must also be remembered that the previous year ended with a collapse close to 11%, the largest since the Civil War. However, first the bottlenecks in the offer and then the appearance of the omicron variant, whose effects are unknown and that the Stock Exchange paid the first day with a bang that still resonates, began to make the calculations collected in the accounts stagger dangerously. A risk of collapse to which the soaring inflation contributes, driven by electricity prices, which was going to be temporary but which each time has more signs of staying for a long time. Against this background, the European Commission, the OECD, AIReF, BBVA, the Panel of Funcas or the General Council of Economists cascaded ax blows to the generous estimates of La Moncloa, which continues to turn a deaf ear out of political interest. Drastic cuts to which the Bank of Spain joined this Friday, with a two-point snip to the predictions of the PGE for 2021 that threatens to embitter the weekend to Nadia Calvin. Guessing what will happen tomorrow in such a changing world is complex, of course. The only thing that can be taken for granted today is that the Spanish economy is not doing the math.
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