There is no magic solution, everything will be slow and bloody, believes Prof. Branislav Slanchev
Sofia, Bulgaria04 Sep 2023, 03:00 111578 read 18 comments
The Ukrainian offensive has been slower than many had hoped, but this is due both to the delay in Western arms deliveries, as well as to Russia’s defense installations and the vast territory – “as big as Florida” – that has been mined.
Prof. Branislav Slanchev from the University of California, professor of political science and military science, explained this to BNR.
“There are places with 6 mines per square meter – incredibly difficult obstacles to overcome. The West and the Ukrainians underestimated them. Everything there is mined – roads, fields next to them, forests…”
If the Ukrainians break through these fields and reach the defensive line – the so-called Surovikin line, with greater forces, it’s all a matter of enough mass, he added.
After the significant losses in the first breakthrough attempt, the Ukrainians changed their tactics and started clearing the minefields, Slanchev pointed out.
America will never go out to overcome these mining obstacles in a situation where it does not have an air superiority, he noted. In his words, things in Ukraine are happening “slowly, with sappers, creeping, under constant fire.”
Prof. Slanchev expressed doubts that they will reach Melitopol, but believes that “Tokmak is reachable”.
Both sides have serious losses, the teacher reports. According to him, this means that there will be a new mobilization, both in Russia and in Ukraine.
“The Ukrainians will not enter into negotiations, even if we start to stop their supply of weapons or ammunition,” predicts Branislav Slanchev.
“There is no magic solution in this war. Russia is a dangerous and serious opponent, so everything will be slow and bloody as before.”
By next winter, the Ukrainians must take under fire control the supply of weapons and supplies along the southern corridor, the professor at the University of California emphasized.
According to him, the Ukrainians will be in a temporarily disadvantageous position for the winter and the coming spring, and there will be a period of several months in which they will be in a rather difficult situation. They should go into the winter with advantageous positions, he pointed out.
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2023-09-04 02:22:13
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