The dam broke. After four days and 13 ballots, Kevin McCarthy is just two votes away from being elected Speaker of the House, after convincing 15 rebels to vote for him on Friday. The session was adjourned until 10 p.m. (4 a.m., Saturday, Paris time), to allow for two absent elected officials to return to Congress. And try to convince two of the six hard-core Republicans to side with his cause, or at least to vote “present” to lower the threshold of the majority.
After an evening of negotiations, optimism returned to Republican ranks Friday morning. Kevin McCarthy has agreed to restore the rule that allows only one elected representative to table a motion of no confidence, and to give more power in committees to the Freedom Caucus, the parliamentary group to which almost all the rebels belong. One by one, the naysayers shouted McCarthy’s name, to applause.
complicated math
The “Never Kevin” group, led by Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert, disbanded to just six representatives at the end of the 11th and 12th rounds. In the last ballot, Kevin McCarthy received 214 votes. With two allies absent – due to a medical problem and a childbirth – who must return to Washington in the evening, he will have 216 votes out of 434 elected.
The calculations are complex, because the majority (218) changes if those elected are absent or choose to vote “present”. Kevin McCarthy can be elected through three different scenarios:
– At least two rebels join his cause to reach a majority of 218
– One slinger votes “present” (bringing the majority to 217), and another votes “McCarthy”.
– Three slingers vote “present” (which would be 431 counted votes), McCarthy is elected with a majority of 216 votes.
The victory of the Californian representative is therefore almost assured. But with the multiple concessions made to the rebels, he could become the weakest Speaker in modern history. With a majority that could explode at the first sensitive vote, in particular to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a “closure” of the federal state.
