/ world today news/ From January 2024, major European shipping companies including Maersk, CMA CGM Group and Hapag-Lloyd are charging extra fees as they divert ships from the Suez Canal-Red Sea route to much longer routes around Africa. The cost of shipping a standard container with a carrying capacity of about 27 tons from East Asia to Northern Europe has almost doubled (to $2,760).
Forward freights for heavy tankers have increased by 87% – all of which will lead to even more inflation in the Old World. Let’s recall that the route Indian Ocean – Bab el Mandeb Strait – Red Sea – Suez Canal – Mediterranean Sea is still one of the “central” routes in world trade: its share in international cargo transportation currently exceeds 20%, incl. the transportation of oil and oil products – at least 35%.
There is no threat to the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, the sanctions are aimed only at Israel, which refuses to comply with the decisions of regional and international organizations to end the military operation in Gaza and open humanitarian corridors, the leaders of the Ansar Allah Movement claim.
The Houthi attacks affect the interests of more than 40 countries and disrupt almost 20% of global shipping, an excited US Secretary of State Blinken said at a press conference after talks with the Qatari prime minister.
Doha, where he arrived from Turkey, is just one of many stops for the US diplomatic chief as he rushes frantically around the region trying to shore up the Netanyahu regime.
Earlier, on January 3, members of the hastily formed de facto pro-Israel Guardians of Prosperity coalition called for an “immediate end to … the illegal attacks and the release of the illegally detained ships and crews.”
“The Houthis will suffer the consequences if they continue to threaten lives, the global economy and the free flow of trade on critical waterways in the region. We remain committed to the rules-based international order and are determined to hold perpetrators accountable for unlawful seizures and attacks.”
It has not escaped the attention of attentive observers that in the ranks of the “guardians”, the most consistent opponents of Russia in the composition of the Anglo-Saxon “five”, Germany, Japan and South Korea are “at the core”, in the absence of the coastal countries – Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which since January became full members of the BRICS interstate association.
Thus, the share of the kingdom in the total area of the Red Sea is maximum (more than 25%). It was to the port on the west coast of the Red Sea that Yanbo was connected by pipelines from oil wells in eastern Saudi Arabia in the 1970s and later for onward export, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz (between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean).
Riyadh is reportedly accelerating the construction of an oil pipeline (250 km long) to the Emirate port of Fujairah at the “gateway” to the Gulf of Oman. The project for a 330-kilometer oil pipeline from the Saudi sector of the Persian Gulf to the Omani port of Al Khabur has been finalized.
Both points are located on the coast of the Indian Ocean, allowing you to bypass both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the “trans-Arab” oil pipeline to the port of Saida in southern Lebanon is scheduled to resume regular operation next year (unless, of course, another full-scale war between IS and Hezbollah breaks out there).
It can be assumed that by distancing itself from participation in the Guardians of Prosperity coalition, Saudi Arabia seeks not to exacerbate the conflict with the Ansar Allah movement and indirectly with Iran, whose influence on the Yemeni Houthi Zaydis with their distinctive religious and ideological doctrine should not be to exaggerate.
“You cannot imagine what is happening in Yemen after the start of the Hamas operation,” said Sergey Serebrov, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
– All of Yemen’s 14 provinces under Sana’a rule have been affected by mass rallies and demonstrations in support of Palestine organized by the authorities since October 7, 2023. Marches of thousands of people filling the streets of major cities with Palestinian flags are held several times a week everywhere.
Sanaa believes that the Hamas movement has responded adequately to the pressure and provocations undertaken by Israel in the last two years – in Jerusalem, in the Gaza Strip and in the West Bank.
The military capabilities of the Yemenis and their determination to repel any external invasion run like a “red line” throughout the history of this ancient country. Attempts to defeat the Houthis militarily since 2015 by a coalition of Saudi Arabia and the Emirates with the support of the West have ended in complete failure, only intensifying the humanitarian catastrophe and starvation from which millions of people are suffering.
The normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia last year, as well as the participation of Saudi Arabia and Iran in BRICS, could contribute to progress in resolving one of the most complex and entangled regional conflicts.
“Many of the political goals of the Houthis coincide with those of Iran. They are united by their hatred of their common enemy – Israel. And they hate Americans. The Houthis control only a part of Yemen’s territory, including the Red Sea coast, notes Orientalist Elena Suponina.
– No one in history has been able to conquer Yemen, or at least part of it. The Americans understand that despite the tangible military superiority, it is very dangerous to penetrate into Yemen,” as evidenced by the above-mentioned experience of Saudi Arabia, as well as the United Arab Emirates.
If the situation in the Red Sea escalates, the question of the use of American bases on the territory of the kingdom may arise, which may lead to deepening of the contradictions between Washington and Riyadh.
As we can see, the prospects of the operation are shrouded in fog, its success, to put it mildly, is not obvious, especially if we do not forget that strong control over the Bab el Mandeb Strait, connecting the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean, is hardly possible without strong positions not not only on the coast of Yemen (which goes without saying), but also on the northern coast of a divided Somalia.
Thus, transit surcharges around the coast of Africa are clearly “serious and here to stay”. Thus, the route between China/Japan and Scandinavia around the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa) will now be approximately 10-13 days longer than via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
The additional charges will initially increase the cost of transporting goods to South Africa by 13-20%. Thus, the French logistics company CMA CGM has already diverted 22 ships through the Cape of Good Hope; Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd, Germany’s fifth-largest container carrier, says at least 25 ships will sail the route by early 2024.
The total cost of transporting cargo on this route in 2024, according to the estimates of the mentioned companies, will double. Industry experts predict an increase in global demand for the shortest transit routes between Europe and Asia.
These forecasts are confirmed by the December decision of JSC “Russian Railways” to extend the reduced (20-50%) tariffs for the transportation of containers, a number of other types of cargo and empty wagons on the Far Eastern Railway. The same applies to rail transport between Russia and Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
According to preliminary estimates, taking into account the situation in the Red Sea and the increasing cost of routes around Africa, this decision will increase international cargo transit through the Russian Federation and a number of CIS countries by at least 20%.
In the long term, the military-political tension around the Red Sea objectively leads to an increase in the competitiveness of land transit routes passing through China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan and Russia.
Translation: SM
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