Corona is certainly not over, but the situation is starting to get better and better. If nothing crazy happens in the coming months, the end of the pandemic is in sight. So says Susan van den Hof, head of the Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance at the RIVM.
Next Tuesday is the thousandth day of the corona crisis in the Netherlands. Almost three years ago, on February 27, 2020, a man from Loon op Zand in Brabant was told he had contracted the virus. The then Minister of Health Bruno Bruins announced that first confirmed infection on live television. The virus spread quickly after that. A large part of the population will become infected, Prime Minister Mark Rutte warned a few weeks later. This has come true. The counter now stands at more than 8.5 million positive tests and nearly 23,000 recorded deaths. The real numbers are higher.
Fewer cases
In recent weeks, however, the corona virus has had considerable difficulty spreading. The number of positive tests is declining rapidly, while it is expected to increase in the fall. According to the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, this is because people have developed protection and are less susceptible due to vaccinations, the summer surge and the fall surge, and previous infections.
Quite optimistic
“The situation is now very different from the years before November. Two years ago no one was vaccinated. Last year we did, but had the nastiest Delta variant. Now our starting situation is much improved, ‘says Van den Hof. He does not make any predictions for the coming winter and the period after, but says:’ For almost a year we have only seen different versions of the omikron variant. This offers some perspective, the previous variants lasted much less. If Omikron stays, I’m quite optimistic. I’m also less afraid of “code black”. If nothing strange happens this winter, we’re probably at the end of it.’
Seasonal disease
The end of the pandemic does not mean the end of the corona virus, because the virus will not go away, Van den Hof points out. People will continue to get infected, patients will continue to end up in hospitals and people will continue to die from it in the future. “But then it becomes a predictable seasonal disease. Then we have a virus that we have learned to live with. And we will continue to vaccinate high-risk groups, just like we do with the flu vaccine.’
New viruses
It is important for the Netherlands to prepare, because in a few years there may be a new pandemic, says Van den Hof. “We have organized a lot of things. I would like to consolidate and expand it, so that we are more flexible in the next outbreak and get a faster and better view of what is happening. Measuring virus particles in wastewater, for example. It may soon be lower, but if we need it again, we need to be able to grow rapidly.’
