Aid organizations are desperately trying to get civilians out of the war-torn port city of Mariupol in Ukraine.
The Red Cross is making another attempt at evacuation on Saturday, after they tried to send in 50 buses for evacuation on Friday, but had to return to Zaporizhia because the promised ceasefire has not been complied with.
Some believe the port city is the next to fall. General and former Chief of Defense Sverre Diesen is not so sure.
– The more fragmented the city becomes, the easier it is to defend it for the Ukrainian forces. This is due to the fact that in defense battles, the defender will be able to use the ruins and building remains as positions and barriers, while the attacker needs to overcome these same obstacles, Diesen says to TV 2.
– DESTRUCTIONS: Mariupol is among the cities in Ukraine that are partially laid in ruins. The picture is from earlier March. Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka / AP / NTB
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– Force humanitarian catastrophe
Diesen believes precisely this, that the Ukrainians defend the city so well, helps to make the Russians reluctant in the work of evacuating civilians.
“The greater the humanitarian catastrophe in Mariupol, the more likely it is that Ukraine will be forced to give up the city,” he said.
At the same time, he believes we are beginning to see hints that Russia is about to give up the ground war.
In recent days, there have been reports that the Russians are in the process of withdrawing in northern Ukraine. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the withdrawal goes slowly.
– They have had great losses in soldiers and materiel, so if we look at what it takes now for them to be able to take Ukraine, then it is beyond what is their situation now, he says.
– GENERAL: And former Chief of Defense Sverre Diesen. Photo: Frode Sunde / TV 2
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Strikes out politically
Diesen believes this also has a political effect – in that the Russians are more willing to negotiate, while the Ukrainians are less interested in this.
– It is clear, now the Ukrainians see signs of a standstill, and then there will be an opportunity to start a guerrilla war in the occupied territories, he says.
There have been a number of reports of Russian generals being killed in the war – more of a higher rank have been killed than usual in military operations.
– It is a sign that they have to move the generals forward in the front line, motto to raise morale, which we hear is frayed in many places. And then there is the question of whether the Russian communications system is about to collapse, so that senior officers actually have to come forward to give the order that is needed, he says.
The United States strategically wins
Øystein Tunsjø is a professor at the Department of Defense Studies with the Norwegian Defense College.
He believes an interesting aspect of the war now is that the United States now seems to consider China as a far greater threat than Russia.
– In a press release about their new defense strategy, the Pentagon writes that China is the first priority in the time ahead. This shows that Russia is weakened, while Europe is strengthened, says Tunsjø.
In the previous defense strategy of the US defense, no distinction was made between Russia and China.
– China is a far greater superpower than Russia. The war has given the United States the opportunity to focus on them. There is a much greater chance that China can dominate Asia than Russia can dominate Europe, he says.
Tunsjø also thinks the Chinese are now a little unsure of how to proceed.
– It was thought in advance that the West would be fragmented and weakened, but they have stood together during the war, and have strengthened. The Russian military effort has been deplorable, and China is getting it, he says.
Health challenges
On Friday, a spokesman for Putin had to go out and reject rumors that Putin has a cancer diagnosis. There have been a number of rumors about Putin’s health since the invasion began.
– I do not think this is anything more destructive than anything else he does, says Diesen.
However, he believes that there are other health rumors that could be more dangerous for Putin.
– Especially his mental health and perception of reality has been speculated about. It is clear, there are enough people in his inner circle who think that enough is enough, and that this has long been out of control, he says.
– Does this mean that someone can try to overthrow Putin?
“Like everyone else in palace revolutions, it is difficult to say who is threatening something like that, and whether they will make any attempt to overthrow Putin,” he said.
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