Sick leave can be very high in the coming weeks. The director of health encourages everyone who can contribute to get in touch.
– There is no doubt that this will be demanding. We are facing some very unusual weeks, says Bjørn Guldvog in the Norwegian Directorate of Health to VG.
On Thursday, VG wrote that sickness absence in Denmark is now increasing strongly due to high infection pressure in society.
Half of all Danish municipalities are in emergency preparedness, and several have had to cut services in elderly care. Cleaning, personal care and activities must be cut down, the leader of the trade union FOA, Torben Hollmann, told VG.
Denmark experienced a faster increase in omicron infection and has had fewer measures than Norway. Therefore, their wave is a few weeks ahead of Norway, which makes it one of the most important countries the authorities are watching.
Can experience sickness absence over 20 percent
Sick leave is now the main reason for the measures in Norway. The National Institute of Public Health has made various modeling related to sickness absence, which is expected in the coming weeks.
According to FHI the peak can be about 20 percent sick leave, which will have consequences for health services, schools, kindergartens and other socially critical functions.
– Some municipalities will probably also experience sickness absence higher than 20 percent, says Guldvog.
– We already have increasing sickness absence in the municipalities, and many report that it is demanding.
Gulvog comes at the same time as an appeal to the population:
– We and the municipalities are dependent on all good forces. If you have the opportunity to contribute, it is good to get in touch with struggling municipalities – and offer help. Those who know that their relatives need a lot of help can at times assist the municipality. This is a great help.
– According to FHI’s calculations, there may still be twice as many infected before we reach the top. Will the municipalities be able to handle this?
– We think it is possible. We have changed the quarantine rules and reduced the isolation period, which we believe will help the situation. It is also possible to look at further adaptations here, says Guldvog.
– Even though there will be some demanding weeks, which means that the population does not get as good services as they are used to, we will hopefully move towards a more normal everyday life and more immunity in the population.
– That’s the win.
–May need to reduce supply
The Norwegian Directorate of Health’s latest ukesrapport vis that the number of people with covid-19 in municipal institutions – for example nursing homes – is increasing.
Since the first week of January, the number has quadrupled – an increase from 109 to 468 patients.
There are now more covid patients in the municipalities than in hospitals, the report states.
158 municipalities report that they consider the risk to be medium for the infection to overload the health service in the next 1-3 weeks, which is a small increase from last week.
“Sick leave is reported as challenging throughout the country in kindergartens, schools and the health service,” according to the report.
– Elderly care in Denmark has had to cut back on services such as cleaning and activities in nursing homes – is it likely that we will also get there in Norway?
– If there is a lack of capacity, basic needs such as food, drink and health care must be prioritized. In many cases, practical assistance, such as activity offers, can be reduced without this having consequences for the individual service recipient, says Guldvog.
– The more serious the situation becomes, the more sharp the priorities become.
– Can sickness absence be so high that we have to shut down again?
– I do not think it is very likely, but we can not rule it out. We must be able to provide basic services to the population. This applies to the health service, but also services such as police, defense, school and kindergarten.
While Denmark and Sweden have fully opened up, Norway has retained some measures – such as the meter and bandages – partly to control the wave of infection.
– What does it take for the Norwegian Directorate of Health to recommend full reopening?
– I am pretty sure that we will recommend this within a relatively short time. We have relatively good knowledge of how high this wave of infections can be. It is the wave of infection again that leads to sick leave.
– A feeling that the top has not yet been reached
Every week, the State Administrators throughout the country meet with the municipalities in their region about the situation. Haavard Stensvand, county emergency manager at the State Administrator in Western Norway, says that many are worried.
Thursday’s municipal meeting was almost exclusively about sick leave, he says.
In Western Norway, 28 percent of the municipalities reported challenging access to personnel in week 5, according to the Norwegian Directorate of Health’s weekly report.
– The biggest pandemic concern now is sickness absence, and the challenges the municipalities have in finding substitutes, says Stensvand.
– The municipalities have different challenges. For example, a municipality has challenges in staffing the kindergarten. Here they have partly had to close a department, because it is not possible to get substitutes. This is probably the situation in many municipalities.
–He says that many municipal employees now have a somewhat hesitant feeling.
– It is probably a feeling that the top has not yet been reached, he says.
– The infection situation will affect many municipalities at the same time, which makes it challenging to borrow resources from each other.
He says that several municipalities have gone out to the local media and encouraged residents in the municipality to sign up, so that you have reserves when needed. This can be students or pensioners, says Stensvand.
At the same time, there is intense planning, he says.
– First and foremost, it is about making assessments of where you have your greatest vulnerabilities. For example, where one is particularly dependent on individuals. Concrete assessments must also be made of what should be prioritized in the event of a crisis. IN
In the calculator below, you can click on various things FHI believes can affect the coming wave of infection, and see how many infected, hospitalized and respiratory patients it can lead to,
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