LUTVANN (Dagbladet): In a rare interview, Lars Nordrum, deputy commander of Norway’s civilian and military foreign intelligence service – the E-service – says that most things have gone wrong for Russian President Vladimir Putin after he ordered Russian forces on 24 February last year to attack Ukraine.
– The rumors may have reached the prisons
– Putin and the Russians thought they were going to take Ukraine within a few days. He was wrong, states Nordrum.
Norway’s former ambassador to Iran has in recent years held a central position in the E-service – first as head of analysis and now as deputy commander.
Putin’s fate
Nordrum says frankly that Vladimir Putin’s fate is linked to the war in Ukraine.
PROBLEMS: President Vladimir Putin thought he was going to take Ukraine in a few days, says Lars Nordrum in the E service. Photo: Scanpix
sea view
– Russia’s military forces have not delivered what Putin expected. Progress on the ground is miserable. Russia has met resistance and fighting spirit from the Ukrainian people, which they did not expect, says Nordrum.
He points out that the war has weakened Russia’s military capability, and that everything indicates that it will continue in 2023.
– Weak leadership, and large human and material losses on the battlefield, have contributed to poor morale in the military forces. Russia is significantly weakened militarily, says Nordrum to Dagbladet.
Military failure
Although the war has been a military failure for Putin, and led to economic downturns for the Russians, the E-service sees no signs that the Russian people will revolt against the regime in the Kremlin.
– The authorities in Russia have full control over the media, and a propaganda apparatus which in turn means that the Russian people have little access to information other than what the regime allows, says Nordrum.
DEAD SOLDIERS: Russia has suffered heavy losses, and Western intelligence believes over 100,000 soldiers have been killed or wounded. Photo: Felipe Dana / AP / NTB
sea view
At the same time, Nordrum points out that there is now a dawning realization throughout Russia that the war in Ukraine is going badly.
– The prisons have been emptied, and the prisoners have been sent to the front. It is not middle-class children from St. Petersburg and Moscow who are killed on the battlefield in Ukraine, explains Lars Nordrum.
Store tap
Western intelligence – British and American – operates with the assumption that about half of the 200,000-man Russian invasion force has either been killed or wounded.
Now President Vladimir Putin has mobilized 300,000 new soldiers, who will be sent to the front.
– Both Russia and Ukraine have suffered heavy losses, and are struggling with additional supplies. Ukraine is completely dependent on Western support and weapons, to fight back and prevent the Russian forces from going on the offensive. We also see that Russia is having problems obtaining enough weapons and ammunition.
Does not rule out aliens
Lars Nordrum also points out that the war in Ukraine has led to major economic and political consequences for Russia.
– The war and the invasion of Ukraine have brought the West together, which in turn led to Finland and Sweden applying for membership in NATO. This in turn leads to major changes in the balance of power in the Baltic Sea region, says Nordrum.
Surprised
He also believes that Putin had not foreseen that one of the consequences of the invasion could lead to Finland and Sweden applying for NATO membership.
– Our opinion is that Putin was surprised that neutral Finland and Sweden reacted to the invasion by applying for membership in NATO. It seems that Putin has acknowledged that Finland and Sweden will become NATO members, says Nordrum.
– What about China’s role?
– It is important for China to avoid Russia collapsing, and to prevent what they see as a Western-dominated world order, says Lars Nordrum.
