Since mid-July, the number of covid-19 infections has started to rise steadily in Europe. Looking at the aggregate values of the Eurozone countries as a whole, it appears that the number of cases is not yet at the level of what happened in March and April, but does not bode well for entry into the autumn.
In Portugal, the rise in cases of infection also occurs, although the situation is still below the values reached in the first wave. In each of the past three days, more than 500 new infections have been reported in 24 hours, a maximum since late April.
The graph above (which includes daily data for the 19 countries in the euro zone) shows how Europe is already facing a second wave of covid-19, mainly due to the high values recorded in countries with Spain and France.
The evolution in each country is more visible in the graph below, where you can see the daily evolution of cases of covid-19 by country.
Uncertain economic recovery
For now, the rise in the number of cases has not yet been reflected in an equally significant increase in mortality, but no one knows what winter will bring. In view of the uncertainty about the pandemic, economic activity has already started to suffer, especially in the services sector, and prudence prevails.
Even though the virus’s mortality is now more contained, without a ready vaccine the increase in covid cases is reflected in the economy’s progress. The strength of the recovery remains surrounded by significant uncertainty, as it remains highly dependent on the evolution of the pandemic and the success of the containment measures, Christine Lagarde stressed on Thursday after the ECB meeting.
The scenario that comes
No one knows what the last quarter of this year, winter, holds. But caution is everywhere. According to Bloomberg, the choice of Lagarde’s words to characterize the economic recovery was not unanimous among ECB governors. There were those who argued that the president should be more optimistic and assertive about the impetus for the recovery, but she overcame prudence.
In fact, when he announced the improvement in the projection of the ECB experts for the Eurozone (from a recession from 8.7% to 8%), Lagarde insisted that the report also has the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes a greater impact of the pandemic, and said the risks are downward. In the worst case scenario, the ECB anticipates a 10% recession.
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