The tragic precedent of the great epidemic of 1918 has been repeated in the European Union. The coronavirus-shaped grim reaper is taking more lives in the second, fall wave than it did last spring. From August 1 to December 6, covid-19 has claimed 152,216 lives in the 27 countries of the European Union, up from 136,176 in the first wave (from March 1 to July 31), according to the data analyzed by EL PAÍS from the statistics of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and Johns Hopkins University. These are always recorded figures of confirmed deaths from coronavirus. It should be borne in mind that the excess mortality figures suggest that deaths attributed to COVID have been underestimated.
In total, the EU has registered 31 more deaths per million inhabitants in the last four months than in the first phase. And in the absence of a winter season that is also expected to be deadly. The “light at the end of the tunnel”, as the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has defined the vaccine in the making, will probably restore hope, but it will not be enough, for now, to completely stop the growing shadow of mourning that covers the Old Continent and most of the planet.
The ECDC notes from its headquarters in Stockholm that “there are substantial differences from one country to another.” The agency adds that the impact of the pandemic has left, for the moment, three trend scenarios in the continent. “We have countries, like Austria, Greece or Hungary, that have seen more deaths during the fall,” indicates the ECDC. “Others where there have been more deaths in spring than in autumn”, a situation in which Spain finds itself, among other countries. And finally, “a third group that have seen a similar number of deaths in spring and autumn, as is the case of Germany or Belgium”, although in the German case with substantially lower figures than the rest. Taken together, second wave deaths already exceed first wave in 17 out of 27 EU countries (see breakdown in graph at end of article).
Three trends
The director of the World Health Organization for Europe, Dr. Hans Kluge, warns of the risk of interpreting the term wave as an indication that different political or technical responses are required at all times. “It is important to face the pandemic as a unique event lasting about two years, with more hectic moments and others of greater calm.” Kluge points out that “we are halfway there” and recalls that “a strategy is required [de protección] which is always the same and will continue to be so, and to which the vaccine will be incorporated ”.
“Perhaps we are facing a stabilization of the figures in the EU, but it is a stabilization in very high figures”, warned the European Commissioner for Health, Stella Kyriakides last week. “Every 17 seconds a person dies in Europe from covid-19, every day 5,000 families in Europe mourn the loss of a loved one,” added the commissioner.
The ECDC data, which adds those of the EU with the United Kingdom, Norway and Liechtenstein, show 177,285 deaths between March and July and 172,008 deaths from August 1 to December 7 thanks to the data from the United Kingdom, which has reduced to half the number of deaths (from about 41,000 deaths in spring to just over 20,000 in autumn). If we also consider other European countries that are not members of the EU or included in the ECDC calculation, such as Ukraine, Serbia or Moldova, the conclusion is reinforced that in the whole of Europe as a whole the second wave is more deadly, as is it happens in the EU. In the world there have also been more deaths since August, although on a planetary scale there has been a sustained rise more than two different waves.
100 years ago, it also happened when the so-called Spanish flu took many more lives in an autumn that coincided with the end of World War I. The scale of the current plague is so far much smaller and health systems are light years away from those of a century ago.
But the coronavirus has caught the EU off guard for seven decades of uninterrupted peace. And in both the first and second waves, the European partners have maintained a certain air of superiority in the face of an evil that they consider typical of other latitudes. Often the real landing has only come when overcrowded morgues followed overflowing hospitals.
Each country hit, with Italy as the first victim, was observed by its neighbors as an ill-fated exception in the middle of a healthy continent. The serious mistake of indifference paid dearly for a few weeks later. And the sad pattern has been repeated during a second wave that has particularly raged in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, which were safe during the first and in some cases ignored the warning signs in neighboring countries.
More and less deaths
Deaths have multiplied by 10 in Poland between spring and autumn. Or for more than 20 in the Czech Republic. And the figures have also skyrocketed in Hungary, Romania or Bulgaria and most of the countries of a bloc through which the virus seemed to have passed by. The countries where deaths per million inhabitants have increased the most between the two waves are the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Hungary and Croatia, in that order. But the number of deaths has also increased in many others such as Germany, Portugal, Austria or Greece. On the other hand, where the decrease in deaths per million between one wave and another has been greatest is in Sweden, Ireland and Spain. In the Spanish case, this is mainly due to the very high mortality of the first wave.
Spain led the number of deaths per million inhabitants in the first wave, only behind Belgium. In the second phase, however, there are 10 other EU countries where mortality from covid has been higher. The higher Italian mortality of the second wave has caused the transalpine country to once again surpass Spain in deaths per million in the entire pandemic.
“Some countries, such as the Czech Republic, closed their borders very early in the spring and perhaps that contributed to the low numbers at the time,” says Marc van Ranst, a virologist and researcher at the Catholic University of Leuven (Belgium). But the Belgian virologist admits that he has “no clear explanation of why in those countries there was hardly the first wave and the second, on the other hand, is so deadly.
The risk of Christmas
As for the whole of Europe, Van Ranst clearly points to the summer holiday season as one of the elements that have contributed to the spread of the virus. “Without a doubt,” says the professor from Leuven. And he fears that “it will be repeated during Christmas in countries that do not adopt strict measures.” Commissioner Kyriakides also warned that if the improvement in recent days is wasted, there will be “more cases, more deaths and more confinements.”
Kluge points out that the summer contagion “has not been scientifically corroborated” but the behavior during that period, “with greater mobility and intense social contact outside the usual bubble are factors that have undoubtedly contributed.” The WHO director emphasizes that “there is no reason to think that the virus has become more lethal or aggressive, it simply goes where it can replicate. And that’s where there are people without protection ”.
The summer euphoria seems to repeat itself on Christmas Eve, with the announcement of the launch of the vaccination campaigns encouraging a certain spirit of relaxation. “The hope that the vaccine offers is good news and is necessary, but countries that do not adopt strict measures will pay dearly later, both in terms of lives lost and economic losses,” Van Ranst predicts.
Kluge agrees on the Christmas risk. “We have the precedent of the US, where the Thanksgiving celebrations have already caused a rebound,” warns the WHO specialist. The projections of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a research center of the University of Washington, indicate that deaths in the area of Europe and Central Asia could multiply by five and reach one and a half million on April 1 in case of widespread relaxation of protection standards. For Spain, the projection in this scenario predicts a level of 90,000 deaths on the same date.
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