The prospect is frightening considering what has happened in recent months: the dreaded second wave, which seems to have taken off for two weeks, could have far worse consequences than those experienced at the height of the first. vague if strong restrictive measures were not taken today to stem this harmful development.
According to Flemish researchers Geert Molenberghs (KULeuven) and Kurt Barbe (VUB), the number of contamination cases should show an exponential curve until at least October. With it, the hospitalization curve should also progress dangerously, to the point of reaching its peak in November.
According to this curve, we would approach the bar of 10,000 people hospitalized for coronavirus for the beginning of November. By comparison, the maximum number of people hospitalized simultaneously during the first wave of the epidemic was reached on April 6, with 5,759 people hospitalized.
At the height of the epidemic, the mark of 300 recorded daily deaths was regularly reached. According to calculations made by Kurt Barbe and Geert Molenberghs, the number of deaths should explode, in particular because hospital services would then be completely saturated. “The latest figures for hospitalizations published by Sciensano increase considerably compared to the model carried out previously, blows Kurt Barbe. With a contamination factor of 1.2 (Editor’s note: a person suffering from Covid would infect 1.2 around them), I am afraid that the data conforms to the pessimistic expectations that were made in mid-May . ”
And the scientist fears that local reconfigurations – as is happening in several European countries – will become inevitable. “I’m afraid that local lockdowns cannot be avoided,” confirms Kurt Barbe. It’s like forest fires that are difficult to control: exponential growth sets in. It’s slow, so people are playing down the impact of this growth. But that’s typical of a multiplicative process. ”
Kurt Barbe, however, hopes that awareness will reverse the curve. “We have until July 31 to reverse growth, stabilization is not enough.”
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