According to the Lithuanian Central Election Commission (CEC), the largest opposition party, the Conservative Party, performed best in the first round of elections on Sunday. For the Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats, which won 23 seats, the ruling Farmers ‘and Greens’ Union with 16 seats remained in second place, followed by the Labor Party with nine seats, as well as the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party and the debutant Freedom Party – each with eight seats and the Liberal Movement with six seats.
Other parties in the multi-member area have not overcome the 5% barrier to entering the Seimas according to party lists.
As Mažvīds Jastramskis, Assistant Professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University,
these elections could mark a certain turning point, as for the first time since 1996, right-wing parties have won the majority of votes.
If this trend continues in the second round, the current green farmers will not have the opportunity to form a coalition.
He reminded that in the first round of the 2016 Seimas elections, the homeland was a bit better than the Greens, but in the second round the weight cup unexpectedly weighed in favor of the latter, because the voters viewed the Greens as a new party, but this time they do not have such an advantage. who has been in power for four years.
Vytautas Dumbļauskas, an assistant professor at Mykolas Romeris University, has also pointed to a marked turn in the sympathy of voters in the direction of right-wing political forces – conservative and liberal.
At the same time, political scientists have expressed the opinion that it is not yet possible to talk about clear election favorites after the first round, but the failures of some parties are obvious.
Dumblausks mentioned in lari the other two parties of the current ruling coalition – Lithuanian Polish election campaigns – Union of Christian Families and the Lithuanian Social Democratic Labor Party – the inability to overcome the 5% barrier to parliamentary elections on party lists. Among other things, he admitted that some Russian-speakers Lithuanian Polish election campaigns – Union of Christian Families the voter may have been seduced by the Labor Party of populist politician Viktor Uspaskih.
Experts have pointed to the rather weak results of the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party – the party led by Gintautas Palucka, which left the ruling coalition in 2017, has recently ranked third in recent opinion polls, but remained fourth in the first round of elections.
According to Dumbļauskas, even taking into account the Social Democratic Labor Party led by Gediminas Ķirķils, which at that time split up and remained in the collision, the Social Democratic forces lost a total of about 40,000 votes, which is, in his opinion, a clear defeat.
Both political scientists have acknowledged that it is not worth predicting the composition of a possible coalition after the first round, although it is already clear that either a center-left coalition of Greens, Social Democrats and the Labor Party or a center-right coalition of patriots with Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement.
According to Jastramski, it is possible that neither coalition will succeed in gaining the required majority – 71 deputies, and in that case everything can be resolved by some mandates of small parties that have entered the Seimas.
Dumbļauskas has also admitted that strong coalitions will not be marked after the second round.
“In a multi-member area, the right has 37 seats and the left has 33, but it is difficult to predict the outcome in a single-member area – it happens that the candidate who gets the most votes in the first round loses in the second,” he said.
According to Jastramski, the chances of forming a center-left coalition are reduced both by the current large dominance of patriots over the green peasants and the noticeable decline in support for the Social Democrats compared to the previous elections.
“I don’t think the Social Democrats would openly enter into a coalition with the right. That would be very strange. On the other hand, their lack of enthusiasm could hurt the Greens and the Labor Party. The demotivating factor of the Social Democrats in the second round could be quite decisive,” he predicted.
At the same time, Jastramskis admitted that there would be no reason to talk about a center-right coalition if the liberal political forces – the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement – had not entered the parliament in the first round.
“A very important condition for the center-right coalition is the entry of both liberal parties into the Seimas. (..) If the liberal parties had done badly, there would have been no talk of a center-right or center-left coalition,” the expert said.
However, assuming that the fatherland, together with the two liberal parties, would lack a majority of seats, it is possible that they could call on the Labor Party, which is more likely to be part of the left-wing central flank, to help.
“I think the Labor Party could play the same role as Lithuanian Polish Election Campaign – Union of Christian Families played in the 2012 election, say, if a coalition axis of conservative and two liberal parties were formed, then the “workers” could be added as a party that gives security to a stronger majority. In that case, there would be room for maneuver, as these mandates might prove necessary, but on the other hand, I do not think that [Darba partija konservatīvajiem] would be priority partners, “said Jastramskis.
According to Dumblusk, the Labor Party could operate in a possible center-left as well as a center-right coalition, although the latter option may not be beneficial for the Labor Party itself.
“The Labor Party could have about ten seats. But would it be worthwhile for Uspaskiham to go along with the Conservatives? His constituents don’t like the Conservatives, but Uspaskiham himself also needs it to keep his mandate in the European Parliament. (..) On the other hand, Uspaskiham himself there is no ideology, so he could work with different parties, “the political scientist admitted.
141 deputies must be elected to the Lithuanian Seimas, 70 deputies are elected in a multi-member constituency according to party lists, and 71 – in single-member constituencies. Party lists must cross the 5% barrier to enter the Seimas, but party association lists must cross the 7% barrier.
The election of all deputies in single-member constituencies will require a second round of elections on 25 October.
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