The current geopolitical conditions of great tension and progressive instability, combined with the fragile political environment in America and Europe, are causing multiple problems for the international and domestic financial community.
Especially in the circles of globally active businessmen, the scenarios of dynamic rearrangements in the international political scene abound at this time, mainly due to the long-standing war conflicts both in Ukraine and in the Middle East, but also the now obvious claim to redistribute power and expand participation in international affairs by multitude of states and powers of the East and the Southern Hemisphere.
There are not a few who estimate that prolonged military conflicts create foci of incidents and uncontrollable tensions, capable of undermining international trade and, by extension, international economic activity in the medium term.
Most of them attribute the current environment of international liquidity to the mismanagement of global power by the declining West, particularly by the hegemonic United States of America, but also by a restive Europe, which did not react in time to the multitude of changes and of rearrangements recorded for three decades on the planet.
From monopoly to competition
It is common belief now that the world has changed dramatically under the positive influence of the freedom of international trade, the liberalization of the movement of capital and the diffusion of new technologies to every corner of the planet.
The United States has long enjoyed the monopoly of the dollar and the benefits of exploiting the cheap labor of Asia, but now faces strong competition in the production of industrial and technological goods from the world’s once poorest countries. The worst thing is that internally the USA seems completely divided, the old American dream has long since been demystified, American society tends to lose its cohesion and the mass mobilizations of American students are reminiscent of the crisis of the Vietnam War, calling into question the management of the international affairs.
It’s no coincidence that Israel’s complete coverage of arms and money is utterly divisive in the US. Especially after the principle of proportionality was broken with the violent razing of Gaza in the face of the Hamas invasion. The 1,200 dead Israelis cannot by any measure be compared to the 36,000 victims of Gaza. It refers to other times and other forces that have been condemned in the world consciousness.
From this fact, the triple hegemonic doctrine of the USA is tested. This is that of the international policeman, the arbitrator and the guarantor of global security and peace. Apparently now it’s crashed, it doesn’t work, nor does it perform as expected. On the contrary, the USA, because of its unhindered destructive policy Netanyahu, they become more and more vulnerable, pressed everywhere.
Concern about the elections in the US and Europe
International businessmen do not hide their concern that the decline of the United States will be recorded in the worst possible way in the presidential elections next November. Some believe that the outcome of the US election in November will be so divisive that it will make the tensions and conflicts close to resolution. “The invasion of Trump’s supporters in the Capitol in January 2020 will look like a funny event in front of what will be triggered by the result of the next November” predict the most pessimists.
Correspondingly, the same financial circles do not hide their disappointment with the developments in the Old Continent. Also long protected by the US, Europe, which in previous decades saw its competitiveness soar by exploiting the privileged relations with Russia and the equally privileged prices of Russian energy goods, is now faced with existential challenges.
As powerful and internationalized businessmen point out, “Europe is sleepwalking, its leadership, bureaucratized as it is, is dangerously acrobatic, does not understand the change in conditions and insists on doctrines that sink it productively and immobilize it in the face of intensifying international competition and socially expose it to regime of widening inequalities, which undermines the European vision”.
The most pessimistic consider Europe to be a “done deal” and estimate that “the upcoming European elections will confirm the truth of the matter.” But even the most moderate do not hide their concern, insisting that “if Europe does not react quickly, if it does not quickly get rid of the multitude of ideological bureaucratic obstacles and take care of its productive restructuring and reconstruction through the mobilization of a significant amount of new resources, it will miss the train of progress and development and will sink into a circle of disrepute.”
Already, as they say, once-thriving industrial structures are under threat, its once-mighty auto industry is being tested by the invasion of Chinese electric cars, and as time passes the innovation deficit is being revealed in a multitude of productive sectors.
The European bureaucracy in Brussels is also strongly criticized for insisting ideologically on competition issues, constantly inventing regulations and erecting a multitude of obstacles while everyone else is subsidizing and supporting generously with incentives and resources the establishment of businesses on their territory.
It is no coincidence that three of the largest outward-facing Greek companies are rushing to take advantage of the Biden administration’s incentives to set up production units in the US. The same circles, although they do not bargain at all for Western goods and ways of life, feel that dogma is no substitute for realism these days. As they typically say, the sight of European bureaucracy with Ukrainian flags on their lapels does not match the criticality of the circumstances, nor the fluidity of the period.
In addition, for most of the businessmen, the goal that wants Ukraine to win the war with Russia is considered unrealistic. They even wonder aloud how prominent Commission officials believe that one of the world’s greatest nuclear powers can be defeated on the Ukrainian plains, insisting that one would expect Brussels to work more for peace than for war.
Greece facing the spectrum of changes
The same factors consider that a corresponding moderation must also characterize Greek foreign policy. According to them, our country does not need to speed up, but to prepare for big changes and even bigger shifts. They feel the same must prevail in Greek businesses. The period is transitory and demands are multiplying.
Businesses in the current conditions of international instability must be healthy, take care of their growth, claim the cheapest possible financing and together prepare to strengthen their international presence, taking advantage of the new opportunities that are always offered in transitional periods.
And the businessmen should of course be freed from the old schemes that wanted the same very rich and their businesses poor. In these times, the conditions must be reversed, the businesses are very rich and the entrepreneurs…well off.
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