by Lorenzo Pallavicini –
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict for a year and a half has also had strong repercussions on airlines, with the closure of the immense Russian airspace for Western companies, once a designated route for many Asian destinations, with the results of an increase in flights to the Far East and costs for fuel and energy, which have increased significantly and are still subject to fluctuations today due to the cuts in oil production desired by the OPEC countries and Russia itself.
Even though the conflict is in full swing, there are already those who are thinking about the post-war period and the reconstruction period, although to date there is no certainty regarding the timing of a peace plan.
Securing the future of Ukrainian commercial flights in a country which, despite the many victims of the war, still remains among the top six European countries by population, appears very interesting financially, also due to the large flow of capital and Western companies that will be involved in the reconstruction of the country, in which a strong increase in Western travelers and companies to Ukraine is expected.
The administrators of the low-cost airline Ryanair are no strangers to making inroads into the world of institutions as demonstrated, for example, by the petition launched against the strike of French air traffic controllers and addressed to the European Commission, or the cuts to the commercial offer of flights in Italy towards the islands, in a clear response to the decree passed by the Italian government on the regulation of tariffs for Sicily and Sardinia.
The relationship between this company and national and regional governments has been punctuated by even bitter disputes. The airline has made it possible to develop once peripheral airports, such as the cases of Orio al Serio in Italy, Weese in Germany or Charleroi in Belgium, a significant economic impact, but in exchange these companies have handed over almost all of their commercial spaces to a single company through strong economic incentives, with the result that Ryanair can greatly influence commercial aviation policies by holding a very strong bargaining power towards the institutions.
The Irish company is therefore preparing for an ambitious three billion dollar investment project in Ukraine, committing to connecting the country with over twenty European capitals, offering competitive fares and an operational fleet of thirty Boeing Max aircraft. Ryanair plans to carry out approximately six hundred weekly flights through the airports of Kiev, Lviv and Odessa, in addition to internal flights, allowing citizens to move easily around Ukraine.
Ryanair, it should be remembered, was Ukraine’s second largest airline before the illegitimate Russian invasion in February 2022, and with this move it aims to take first place in the post-war resumption of commercial air traffic in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government, which met the company’s top management in July, seems to support this solution, which represents a further way for Kiev to get even closer to assimilation towards Western Europe, which also involves air connections, in addition to finding a future at affordable prices for air connections to the most important European capitals, with the cheapest fares as a strong point for the low-cost airline led by the volcanic CEO Michael O’Leary.
For Ryanair, securing first place in Ukraine’s commercial aeronautical future can generate enormous revenues, precisely because of the position that, one way or another, Kiev will assume, i.e. an outpost of the West as opposed to the world formed by the BRICS countries and primarily from the Russian-Chinese axis, in which Kiev can have a role not so different from that of Berlin during the Cold War, i.e. a fundamental crossroads for relations between Western countries and a symbol of the West in opposition to anti-Western countries.
The real question mark remains when all this will be possible. The more time passes, the greater the risk is that the reconstruction of Ukraine will become increasingly burdensome on the shoulders of Western countries, and civil air traffic itself may suffer.
If the civil airport structures, for example the country’s main airport, Kiev’s Boryspil, do not yet appear so ruined and the state of runways and service areas not too compromised, the same cannot be said of the Ukrainian military airport structures, essential to ensure the safety of civil aviation flights.
In fact, these strategic infrastructures were destroyed during the first phases of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, starting from the main military airport, Hostomel, and it will take a long time for their complete restoration, where NATO support will obviously be crucial, an element on which there will be no It is easy to find a sticking point in any negotiations with the Russians, who see the expansion of NATO’s military influence on Ukraine as a threat to their security.
