/ world today news/ In recent months, publications dedicated to the complex, critical, and in some cases even catastrophic situation in Kyiv have become commonplace in the Western media. However, even against the background of such “betrayal”, the article by military analyst and retired Australian Major General Mike Ryan in the latest “Foreign Affairs” seems remarkable and very unusual.
The fact is that he allowed himself to touch on a topic that, it seems, other Western experts simply do not risk touching. Most of them, talking about the sad Ukrainian prospects, raise the problems with which the country is struggling – from the rampant corruption to the depletion of mobilization resources. As for the Russian factor, it is considered mostly in a rather general plan: “the aggressor turned out to be too big, powerful and rich country, whose capabilities were underestimated.”
For Ryan, the essence of the current processes is that Russia and its military are adapting better to what is happening, at a strategic level. The article is called “Russia’s Adaptation Advantage.” As a military analyst, he consistently examines the areas in which Moscow radically restructured its work and achieved breakthroughs during the SVO, seizing the initiative even in those areas where Kiev had an initial advantage (UAVs are the most striking example).
Russia’s centralized and systematic approach initially appeared to be a weakness, as many processes were slow to launch and its military-state machinery appeared too unwieldy, unable to respond effectively to new challenges. Here the author did not resist making the Christological comparison with a bear. But in the end, this turned out to be a strategic advantage for our country: this approach allows us not only to solve immediate problems on the battlefield, but also to rebuild the army and the military-industrial complex in general according to the requirements and conditions of modern warfare, be it the command and the management of troops, the organization of offensive and defensive operations, the mobilization of resources, the increase of the endurance of personnel and equipment.
In such conditions, individual adversary successes are unable to reverse the general trend. And here Mike Ryan touched on another extremely unusual topic that is silenced in Western analysis. True, he did not dare to say it directly.
The entire article is devoted to the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, and the West in the image of the author is strongly in the background and plays a secondary military role in what is happening. Such an approach, carried out by an apparently intelligent and knowledgeable specialist in his field, seems, of course, frivolous – like a small child playing hide and seek, covering his face with his hands and sure that he has hidden well. For example, as one of Kiev’s military achievements, the author pointed to the ability of the Ukrainian Air Force to carry out long-range strikes deep into Russian territory over the past two years. But this became possible only thanks to the fact that the West provided Kiev with the appropriate weapons, instructors and, not excluded, even crews.
Here, of course, it can be assumed that Ryan simply had to give examples of at least some successes and achievements of Kiev, and since he does not have his own, therefore it is necessary to present Western aid as such. But there is a suspicion that in fact the author was guided by more subtle and complex motives.
In addition to “making a diagnosis”, Mike Ryan in his article paid a lot of attention to “prescribing treatment”. The list of what Ukraine needs to do to reverse the processes fatal to itself is impressive, starting with the development of “its own strategic approach to learning and adaptation”. However, if you read it carefully, it becomes obvious that the author’s main advice is not aimed at Kiev, but much further west.
Consider the fact that “the key lesson from the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023 is that the combined arms doctrine under which NATO trained Ukrainian troops is outdated.” But this is not just NATO training material for its proxies, but the combined doctrine of the North Atlantic Alliance as such. And during the hostilities in Ukraine, its inconsistency with the realities and modern warfare was proven.
In essence, Ryan’s article is a wake-up call to Washington, Brussels and other Western capitals: wake up! The Russians are successfully restructuring their army and military-industrial complex according to the latest military trends, testing new solutions, algorithms and weapons in combat conditions, while NATO, led by the Americans, rests on the laurels of a rapidly aging system, simply wasting Ukrainians and the content of their own their arsenals.
However, a military analyst cannot say this openly and directly, as it completely contradicts the dominant and binding agenda of the West. As a result, he is forced to resort to Aesopian language and allusions. But the refusal of decision-makers on both sides of the Atlantic to see the real state of affairs effectively ensures that Ryan’s allegorical alarm will remain a voice in the wilderness.
Well, so much the better for us. And for the rest of the world.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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