Despite Ukrainian advances on the battlefield, including the lightning-fast offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, retired American officer Daniel Davis believes Vladimir Putin’s relentless war machine has the upper hand in Ukraine.
“In our spring I wrote that the elements that make up the war were in favor of Russia [ …]. Nothing in the past month has shifted the strategic balance, ”Davis writes the online newspaper of defense and security 19fortyfive.
Retired Lieutenant Colonel Davis believes the only way to end the war is through a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
“The only question that remains is how many more Ukrainians must die before this brutal truth penetrates the leaders of the two warring sides,” Davis writes, adding:
– Simply not true
Davis’s strong shot put former top defender Arne Bård Dalhaug back on his feet.
– I think Davis looks a little one-eyed. It is simply not true that there is only one possible outcome of this war. The conflict able to it can be resolved with a deal, but you also need to make room for other possible outcomes, says Dalhaug, a retired lieutenant general, in Dagbladet.
Between 2016 and 2019, Dalhaug was a civilian observer for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Ukraine. He asks big questions about the possibility of negotiating with Russia.
Putin’s new weapon: – No defense
– Russia has systematically broken all agreements concluded with and on Ukraine. Russia signing a piece of paper has no value in itself. It will not rule out that Russia may carry on the war in a couple of years. Putin has waited eight years since he annexed Crimea and started the war in Donbas until he attempted to invade all of Ukraine, Dalhaug says.
Precisely for this reason, Ukraine has ruled out the possibility of signing an agreement with Russia that does not contain security guarantees. Those who can provide such security guarantees are the West through, for example, NATO.
– It is difficult to imagine that the West will be willing to guarantee the security of Ukraine in this way, and it will be difficult for Ukraine to sign an agreement with Russia without mechanisms that guarantee its security. That’s the problem, says the retired lieutenant general.
– The only thing that matters
An important assumption for Davis’ analysis is that the sides continue to fight despite so that an agreement can be reached.
Dalhaug believes this to be a logical mistake.
– If Ukraine stops fighting, it will soon cease to exist, says the retired lieutenant general.
It also doesn’t believe Russia when it says it is willing to negotiate.
– It does not mean anything. The only thing that matters is the conditions under which these possible conversations will begin, Dalhaug says.
“Burn in hell, you bastards!”
The retired lieutenant general believes Russia practically closed the door to real negotiations when Vladimir Putin annexed four new Ukrainian counties in September.
– It is a completely unacceptable starting point for negotiating on already established and internationally recognized borders. This is the crux of the problem. The big question of principle is whether anyone can help sign an agreement that gave Russia the opportunity to annex land by military force, Dalhaug says.
It makes Davis partially right
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the retired US officer Davis wrote regularly for 1945. At irregular intervals, he has cold water for years on those analysts who have been more optimistic about Ukraine’s chances of victory.
Many of Davis’s remarks have been sober nuances in the public debate over the war in Ukraine, Dalhaug believes.
– As Davis points out, neither side currently has the ability to inflict a decisive defeat on the other side. It’s hard to imagine a spectacular loss that will determine the further course of the war, but one scenario Davis doesn’t even touch upon is that the war is so bad for Russia that something significant could happen in the Kremlin, says the retired lieutenant general.
– I can’t win
He believes the possibility of a so-called palace coup in Russia is small, but he cannot rule it out. That the conflict can “freeze” is not even a scenario Davis considers.
– It seems to me likely that the front line will freeze somewhere close to where I am today without much progress. The Western Front during World War I held out for many years, Dalhaug says.
But it is also open to other scenarios
– If Ukrainian progress has shown us anything, it is that other results are possible. They may not be the most likely, but they are conceivable.
