When Russia launched a full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine on February 24 this year, Russian forces invaded the country from the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula in the south, from the Russian-controlled Donbas region in the east. and from Belarus allied with Russia to the south. the North.
Since then, Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko has continued to allow Vladimir Putin’s ruthless war machine to launch missiles at Ukraine from Belarusian soil.
Now the president of Russia will want more direct support from Lukashenko and his armed forces for the war in Ukraine, says Ukrainian intelligence.
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Civil war and regime change
If Lukashenko were to bow to Putin’s will, the result could be disastrous.
– It could lead to a civil war in Belarus. And since Putin has no forces to deal with, it could quickly lead to a seizure of power in Minsk, says Belarus, Ukraine and Russia expert Arve Hansen, a counselor to the Helsinki Committee, in Dagbladet.
Belarus is Russia’s only ally in the war against Ukraine, but the alliance is not caused by the agreement, but by dependence.
“He may have shot himself”
When Aleksandr Lukashenko falsified the 2020 presidential election results once again, the Belarusian people had had enough. At one point, a million Belarusians marched through the streets demanding the resignation of the dictator.
For a number of years, Lukashenko successfully played the West and Russia against each other, but to ensure his own survival, the dictator had to turn to Russia – forever.
With Putin’s help, Lukashenko severely repressed the demonstrations. Since then, Lukashenko has been completely dependent on Putin and Russia.
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It depends on Putin
If Putin were to pressure Lukashenko to participate more actively in the war in Ukraine, he has many potential means of pressure up his sleeve.
– Belarus is completely dependent on subsidized Russian gas and loans, and a large part of Belarusian exports go to the Russian market. If Russia wants the Belarusian economy to collapse, it can do so by far. Furthermore, the two countries are well integrated militarily and culturally, so there are several ways to put pressure on those in power in Minsk, says Hansen.
However, Lukashenko has a card in his hand that gives him a breath away from Putin, says the adviser to the Helsinki Committee.
– Zelenskii scared me
– Belarus is Russia’s only ally in this war and it would be a great symbolic loss for Putin if Lukashenko turns his back on him. Lukashenko is fully aware of this addiction and uses it for all it’s worth. Most likely he has already been exposed to considerable pressure from Moscow, but he has not yet dragged them fully into war, he says.
Mutual dependence, despite a significant preponderance in Putin’s favor, may explain Belarus’ preliminary participation in the war, Hansen believes, as early this fall. published the critically acclaimed book “Ukraine – Stories. Humans. War”.
– The fact that the Russians used Belarus as a starting point for the invasion and that they fired rockets from Belarusian territory seems like a compromise between the two dictators, he says.
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Little support
Hansen believes that the reason why Belarus did not take an active part in the war in Ukraine was due to Lukashenko’s fear of a new Belarusian uprising.
– Ukrainians and Belarusians have a very close relationship and very few Belarusians support Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine, says the adviser to the Helsinki Committee.
If Putin succeeds in forcing Lukashenko’s military forces onto the battlefield in Ukraine, this could have disastrous consequences for Lukashenko’s weak position in Belarus.
– In the short term, we will see a new wave of sabotage actions against essential infrastructure. It is also likely that we will see mass desertions by the army and new protests in many cities. Many Belarusians also gained military experience after serving as volunteers in the Ukrainian defensive war against Russia. They want – with Ukraine’s support – to go home to fight Lukashenko, says Hansen.
Zelenskii with the cryptic message from Crimea
In summary, he predicts that this could end with both civil war and regime change in Belarus.
Russian President Vladimir Putin should know this too, believes retired Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug, who shares Hansen’s views.
– The question then becomes how great the risk Russia is willing to take. On the one hand, they can get the addition of a few more forces, on the other hand, the regime in Belarus can falter, says Dalhaug, who between 2016 and 2019 was a civilian observer for the Organization for Security and Cooperation. in Europe (OSCE) in Ukraine.
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– Putin’s nightmare scenario
Dalhaug believes it is “obvious” that Putin would have liked Belarus to play a more active role.
– But I’m also pretty sure he’s aware that this is a double-edged sword. There is no support even among Lukashenko’s closest collaborators to participate more actively in the war.
It is therefore not sure that the calculation will work for Putin. If he forces Lukashenko’s forces into Ukraine, he also imagines popular uprisings in Belarus.
Threatened: – Increased conflict
– Putin’s nightmare scenario is the new uprisings in Belarus, because now Russia no longer has to intervene if something should happen. Had Putin had it, Russia would have intervened in the conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan and between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. They didn’t.
If Putin were to get what he wanted, Dalhaug is also skeptical that Lukashenko’s forces would be able to accomplish anything on the battlefield.
– I’m not sure they would have made a difference. They have departments completely lacking in combat experience, which were used only to suppress internal resistance. They’ve never been out in bad weather, and it’s a lot easier to shoot civilians in the back than to shoot someone who’s shooting at you, says the retired Lieutenant General.
