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“The Russian army is quite modernized and can cause serious damage to Belarus, Ukraine and Georgia. But there is no chance against NATO. What Russia has as a military power is that it is not interested in losing lives. This is the big difference between it and NATO. Russia is a country with an authoritarian regime in which the loss of military lives is less important than in the West. And this willingness to sacrifice lives is a very important weapon. ” This opinion was expressed by the famous Russian economist Sergei Guriev – a former close associate of the Kremlin, who fled to France in 2013, reported ClubZ.
He addressed the Subcommittee on Human Rights in the European Parliament. When asked by an MEP, Guriev said he did not know if President Vladimir Putin had a weapon that could threaten the West. And he pointed out that so far everyone has seen only animations and advertising. However, in the field of conventional weapons, Russia is a global superpower, the fugitive warned. It is able to annex more territories from Ukraine. What Moscow cannot stand is new and more sanctions. The regime is afraid of sectoral measures against large companies, against the country’s public debt.
Putin’s decline in popularity ⇒ stagnation
Russia’s economy has grown rapidly in the first 10 years of the century, Guriev said. Putin was also popular then. However, when the regime developed in an undemocratic direction, things changed. Sometime at the end of the first decade of the century, the preconditions for growth disappeared. The president’s popularity has also declined. “If you look at the development of the Russian economy, it recovered quickly from the financial crisis of 2008-2009. After that, however, growth began to decline to 1 percent per year. While in the first years the growth was 7 percent per year, “said the economist. And since 2013, overall growth has been less than an average of 1 percent per year. But more importantly, the incomes of Russian households after government compensation are 10 percent lower than in 2013. “Stagnation went hand in hand with Putin’s declining popularity,” Guriev said.
For Western sanctions
Sanctions imposed by the West do very little damage to the Russian economy and lead to an annual decline of only 0.2 percent. At the same time, however, these measures send signals to potential investors that Russia is a toxic place to invest, the Russian expert said. But this does not scare the rulers.
“Representatives of the Russian government and Putin are not stupid. They understand that a lack of rule of law and investment are having a negative impact on growth. For them, the opportunity to stay in power is to use the judiciary to maintain power. The government understands why there is no investment, but it consciously makes its choice. He is completely deliberate. This is a way for the government to control the economy, to prevent competition. This helps him stay in power at the expense of growth, “said Sergei Guriev. He is adamant that Russian citizens would benefit if they moved to a more open, more European and non-corrupt regime. However, this is exactly against the interests of the government. That is why they use all the tools of repressive and anti-democratic measures.
Even if sanctions are imposed, the Russian government will redistribute the burden of them and shift it from the people they target to retirees and society as a whole. Alexei Navalny and his people are fully aware of what this is all about, urging the EU to sanction Russian oligarchs, Sergei Guriev continued. Because Putin fears targeted sanctions. He knows very well that in such a situation his entourage can turn against him. The EU must enforce its own laws against corruption and money laundering. The Russian regime is using money to undermine Western democracies. That is why the West must work against the invasion of Russian money in Europe.
The regime is not Soviet. There are only a few hundred political prisoners
However, the Putin regime is not Soviet, Guriev said. There are no thousands of political prisoners in the country. They are only a few hundred. There is also censorship, but it is not Stalinist. Currently in Russia reigns the so-called. information autocracy. “This is an authoritarian regime that cannot be replaced by elections. The idea for the elections in Russia is to hold them for a show and to win. If there is a threat, opposition candidates are not allowed. We should not make the mistake of considering this regime democratic, “the emigrant urged.
How the mode can be downloaded
This task is very difficult, as Putin himself has chosen the elites, Sergei Guriev said. “They will not turn against him, they are afraid. If they make such attempts, they will either be poisoned or removed. Three former ministers are already in prison, and so are oligarchs. Others are under house arrest. They were all suspected of conspiracy. If you are not corrupt, this is not a crime in Russia. But there is a lack of loyalty, “said the fugitive.
In this way, Putin dealt with people who saw an alternative to the rule of Dmitry Medvedev, who was president for one term in the period 2008-2012. Such is the case with oligarch Vladimir Yevtushenkov. In 2014, he was placed under house arrest and his business was confiscated in favor of the state oil company Rosneft. Yevtushenkov’s sin was that he wanted a second term for Medvedev. This has led Putin to change the Russian constitution, according to which he can now rule for virtually a lifetime. Today, the Russian president’s “lieutenants” fear that if he leaves, there will be chaos and uncertainty that will cost them all dearly. “In the end, however, I think the protests will bring down the regime. But it is not clear whether Putin will live to see him or not, “Guriev concluded.
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