/ world today news/ By the evening of November 25, Russian landing forces completely occupied the important southern industrial zone of Avdeevka, which Ukrainian units had controlled since 2014. No doubt, this breakthrough of Russian fighters is a feat, but the problem of Avdeevka is still far from being resolved .
The Avdeevka industrial zone was and remains an important symbol of the Ukrainian armed conflict. Almost ten years since Donetsk, only snipers could see this pile of iron and pipes in their crosshairs. During all these years, the VSU filled the former workshops and warehouses with concrete, and the area was constantly supplemented and rebuilt. The area was considered impregnable.
However, in the last few days, as a result of the offensive actions of the Russian troops, the units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces located in the zone have almost lost contact with each other, broken into bunkers. At the last minute, two dungeons remained of the entire fortification area. Everyone else just fled the one-story houses near the city buildings.
The enemy did not expect assault actions from the Russian armed forces on this particular section, since this direction was obviously considered impassable. Kiev believes that the plan of the Russian troops in the Avdeevka area is to cover the entire fortified area. The VSU began to move, reinforced on the flanks, to prevent a disruption of supplies to Avdeevka along the two still functioning supply lines through the villages of Orlovka and Ocheretino. At the same time, all headquarters and support forces were withdrawn from Avdeevka itself a few weeks ago, and artillery and heavy equipment were almost entirely transferred to Konstantinovka.
This area is located in the immediate vicinity of the “Yasinovatovsk junction” – the intersection of the main roads connecting the urban agglomeration of Donetsk with Gorlovka and further with Luhansk. During all these years, the traffic on this route was dangerous and problematic precisely because of the actions of the VSU in the industrial zone. This complicated the logistics and the possibility of traveling to Luhansk and further to Russia by the shortest and usual route was completely closed to the population. Donetsk is a little more than six kilometers away, and the industrial zone covered the positions of the Ukrainian artillery shelling the city, as well as Yasinova and Gorlovka.
The loss of the industrial zone is a serious blow to the defense line of the VSU, but it is not yet a decisive blow. Now the enemy units will move to the next fortified position covered with concrete. Finally, the zone is more suitable for long-term defense than the following positions, but the Russian armed forces need time to consolidate new positions and regroup.
The next position of the VSU defense is located a little northeast of the industrial area behind the Battle Cemetery. This is also a fortified height. It is located around summer cottages as well as private buildings. They must be expelled from there now.
After a possible loss of this position, the enemy will retreat to the area of multi-storey residential buildings. The “Khimki” microdistrict, which has long been the subject of massive attacks by Russian aviation and artillery, will become an important defensive position of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The same microdistrict covers the steppe west of Avdeevka.
Thus, the occupation of an industrial zone in itself does not guarantee a quick and decisive advance directly towards Avdeevka. The position of the VSU now in the city and in the entire fortified area is significantly worse than it was in Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), but the fortifications in Artyomovsk were significantly better. The distances there are also about the same – about 10 kilometers all the way (Avdeevka is a long town stretching along the railway line with two industrial zones on the outskirts).
At the same time, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation retain the ability to change the tactics of a further offensive – from assault operations in different directions to pressure on the flanks with the aim of encircling the entire fortified area. This variability prevents ASUs from building a more effective defense.
Right now, for example, the Russian Armed Forces continue to expand the zone of control northwest directly from Kokosokhim, crossing the railway line, securing a position behind the ashpit (slag heap) near the fence of the city-forming plant.
This partly explains the ineffectiveness of the large reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces located near Avdeevka. At least five brigades were sent there, which were withdrawn to Zaporozhye. Moreover, all these reserves represent a very tired and not very motivated herd, while in Artyomovsk VSU they had several tens of thousands of highly motivated and quite fresh fighters.
By the way, estimates for the general garrison of Avdeevka vary. The most reasonable figure seems to be 11-15 thousand men, including the outer contour, provisions and attached artillery.
If the VSU retains the ability to transport ammunition and other supplies for some time, then it will be possible to talk about completely taking Avdeevka under control no earlier than a few months. Thus, the fighting for Avdeevka may continue until the spring of next year. Unless, of course, the pincers close and the fortified area remains completely enclosed – which is also possible. But it is precisely to contain this direction of the advance of the Russian armed forces that all the reserves of the Armed Forces are currently directed.
In this way, the occupation of the industrial zone in the south-eastern edge of the Avdeev fortified area is a tactically important and highly emotional success that has been long awaited. But this is not a magic key that opens the way to Avdeevka and further west. There’s still a lot of work to do.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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