The RMB rises above the 7.14 mark and five major counterattack factors are exposed | Anue Juheng-Mainland Politics and Economics

RMBGreat counterattack!Onshore, offshoreRMBOn Monday (20th), both stocks rose above the 7.17 yuan mark, rising more than 800 basis points and 500 basis points respectively, both hitting new highs in three months.

offshoreRMBThe exchange rate against the US dollar continued to rise on Tuesday, rising above the 7.14 mark, reaching a maximum of 7.1369 yuan, an increase of about 300 points.OnshoreRMBIt strengthened simultaneously, rising 275 points.

Since November, onshoreRMBRebounded over 1,400 points against the US dollar, offshoreRMBIt exceeds 1,700 points against the US dollar.

According to “21st Century Business Herald”, industry insiders believe that in the near future,RMBThe strengthening of the exchange rate is mainly driven by the following five factors:

Geopolitical pressure eases

Pang Ming, chief economist of Jones Lang LaSalle in China, said that the meeting between the heads of state of the United States and China sent a positive signal and eliminated geopolitical uncertainty.

U.S. and China’s monetary policies tend to converge

Inflation in the United States fell more than expected in October, and the need for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to further raise interest rates in December was reduced. However, China’s MLF excess parity was renewed and LPR was kept unchanged in November, and the interest rate differential between the two countries did not widen.

China’s economic data improves in October

China’s main economic indicators continue to improve, and the economy is generally stable.RMBExchange rates provide a solid foundation.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in October, the national industrial production above designated size increased by 4.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from September; retail sales increased by 7.6%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from September; the national urban surveyed unemployment rate also remained unchanged. At the 5% level.

The lower US dollar brings passive appreciation

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that in the near futureRMBThe rise is mainly due to the passive appreciation brought about by the decline of the US dollar. Since November, offshoreRMBAppreciated 2.25% against the US dollar, onshoreRMBAppreciated 1.98% against the US dollar over the same perioddollar indexDownside 2.95%, all coveredRMBThe appreciation is more than adequate.

However, Wang Qing also pointed out that in addition to changes in the trend of the US dollar, the current decisionRMBThe key to the strength of the exchange rate is still the domestic macroeconomics and the real estate industry.

Overseas capital quietly adds positionsRMBbond

RMBThe exchange rate has continuously exceeded 7.2, 7.19, 7.18, 7.17 and other integer levels, exceptdollar indexContinued decline, overseas capital quietly added positionsRMBBonds also played a big role.

Data shows that overseas capital has continued to increase its positions in the past two months.RMBBonds, the amount of additional positions in September is approximatelyRMB 20 billion yuan, and exceeded 40 billion yuan in October, marking the largest increase in positions in a single month in the past four months.

“In view of the fact that during September-October 10-year U.S. Treasury yieldThe sharp surge caused the inversion of the interest rate differential between China and the United States to widen to -216 basis points, and overseas capital increased its positions.RMBBonds appear unusual. “A Hong Kong bank foreign exchange trader pointed out.