The risks of political violence increase during the US elections

Political violence is not new in America. Since the nation’s inception, terrorists have shaped the political landscape, from the Civil War and the Ku Klux Klan, to high-profile assassinations and bombings of federal buildings, however, the threat of political violence has deepened in recent years, and the intensity will be increased in the 2024 election cycle.

Almost 400 incidents of political violence were reported in the first and second quarters of this year, an increase of almost 80% over 2022.

The Department of Homeland Security has highlighted the growing threat of political violence, identifying far-right extremists as the most dangerous domestic threat to American security.

A small number of these groups gather on the streets, although many of these groups are active online. In the first half of 2024 alone, one in five local elected officials said they had received threats. This month, the Department of Homeland Security described the threat of violence related to the 2024 election cycle as “increasing.”

Save the country

Political violence is usually defined as the use of physical force to harm a person in order to achieve a political goal. In 2022, one in three American adults felt that political violence was always justified to “protect American democracy,” “save the American way of life,” or “save the country.”

Surprisingly, one in seven Americans strongly agreed with the statement that “in the next few years, there will be a civil war in the United States.” Although these numbers decline slightly by 2023, the justification for political violence is extremely widespread.

Within the United States, a continued trend of conspiracy thinking can increase the risk of political violence. In a survey conducted in 2024, it was found that about 9% of Americans surveyed in the period from 2022 to 2023, in statements similar to those of “QAnon” (a right-wing movement that promotes conspiracy theories), that American institutions are “controlled by a group of people.”

20% of Americans said they are “living as the Bible says (the end times). ” As violent ideas and conspiracies grow faster, the risks involved in implementing them at the local level also increase.

Armed men ready

The risk of political violence is exacerbated by the availability of guns, and the United States is an anomaly when it comes to guns, with at least 370 million of them in circulation. Between 30 and 40% of Americans say they own at least one gun.

Gun ownership has increased in the past decade, with studies showing that more than half of US adults will live in a household with a gun in 2023, a 42% increase over 2013.

Interestingly, the largest increase in gun ownership between 2020 and 2021 was among liberal and Democratic citizens.

Whether they are recent buyers or long-time owners, gun owners generally show more support for political violence than non-gun owners, with many looking at guns as tools that can be used to defend “American values”.

In addition, assault rifle owners and people who are more likely to see political violence as justified are more willing to engage in it, more willing to kill, achieve political goals, and organize violent groups.

The same poll for 2024 found that supporters of the “Make America Great Again” campaign had significantly higher beliefs about the likelihood of civil conflict and willingness to take up arms in such a situation.

About 30% of Republicans who support the “Make America Great Again” campaign strongly believe that civil war is likely in the coming years, triple the rate among Republicans unaffiliated with the campaign. where it was confirmed mostly in Extremist leftist groups, because they are considered the main actors.

Political discontent

On the other hand, private militias have become more daring, and it is estimated that the number of groups active today is about 169. They have a long and turbulent history, reaching their prominent status in the 1980s and 1990s. By the mid-1990s there were approximately 859 active militias, although their numbers dwindled after the government crackdown.

However, since 2016, militias such as the Three Percent and Oath Keepers have moved back, driven by political discontent, anti-immigration rhetoric, and support from far-right political figures. go away. Many participated in the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville in 2017 and the “Stop the Steal” actions that followed the 2020 election, including the Capitol riot, while others continue to mobilize around border security issues.

Federal law prohibits paramilitary activity in all 50 states, but enforcement is inconsistent, and while some members of militia groups have been prosecuted in recent years, it is rare which charges.

The combination of anti-government sentiment and the digital spread of far-right ideologies complicates the process of law enforcement, especially in politically charged or rural areas. President Joe Biden’s administration adopted the nation’s first national strategy to combat domestic terrorism in 2021.

In light of strong evidence of its threat, members of Congress and the Senate have proposed the Private Paramilitary Activities Prevention Act of 2024, which aims to prevent “training, surveillance or engagement in paramilitary tactics ,” although the bill has not yet been passed.

In addition to physical conflict, the Internet is another front in the spread of political violence. Social media has transformed recruitment and terrorism, as platforms encourage violence, as threats, fear, and instructions for violence spread with near impunity.

In 2023, the Capitol Police investigated more than 8,000 threats against members of Congress, which represents an increase of about 50% over 2018. At the same time, threats to federal judges increased by 150%, from 2019 to 2023. Social media fuels excitement and anger, which often leaves women and minorities particularly vulnerable to harassment.

Some militias and extremist groups hide propaganda under innocent names and build secret networks to train and organize users. About “The Conversation”

A multifaceted approach

America’s struggle with political violence and domestic terrorism underscores the need for a multipronged approach, starting with clearer enforcement of militia laws and effective gun laws, including background checks, a ban on assault rifles, stronger restrictions on social media, and holding accountable platforms that allow. … With the distribution of content against, these measures nevertheless require political will and public support, both of which are rare in the polarized political landscape of the United States.

• The platforms promote violence, as threats and fear spread with almost impunity.

• Federal law prohibits paramilitary activity, but its enforcement is “inconsistent.”