The risk of Belgium falling apart is becoming more and more tangible, writes Politico, quoted by “Investor.
The country that houses the highest institutions of the European Union (EU) and the headquarters of NATO has long had a dysfunctional national political life. It holds the world record for the longest time to form a government during coalition negotiations – over 500 days.
Now tensions between Dutch-speaking Flanders in the north and French-speaking Wallonia in the south are threatening to escalate into a more serious crisis.
In 2024, elections must be held in the country. According to a media survey, the far-right Vlaams Belang party, which seeks the independence of Flanders, is now the largest political force in the country with about 22% of the vote.
Tom van Grieken, who became the party’s leader when he was just 28 and has been key to its success, is adamant about his plans for independence if he wins the vote. “We believe that Belgium is a forced marriage,” he told Politico. “If it comes to a divorce, we will discuss it as adults. We must arrive at an orderly separation. If they don’t sit at the table with us, we will do it unilaterally,” he added.
For many of the country’s 12.6 million population, its eventual collapse will come as a surprise. Disputes between the Flemish north and the French-speaking south have cooled in recent years. Flanders got the language rights and political competences it wanted. Within the federal state of Belgium, the regions already have broad powers over education, agricultural policy and transport.
However, this did not lead to a major surge, encouraging Vlaams Belang leaders not to rely solely on independence politics to garner support.
Across the EU, the far right has been on the rise in recent months as the bloc struggles to deal with illegal migration, slow growth and high inflation. Populist and anti-establishment parties gain support precisely at such times.
Belgium is one of the European countries facing a large influx of asylum seekers, with the number of arrivals similar to the number during the migration crisis of 2015.
In Flanders, migration is seen as the number one concern for voters, according to a recent survey. “For Vlaams Belang, migration is a leading issue, and this is very important for Flemish voters,” commented Nicolas Buteka, associate professor at Ghent University. “This is the main reason for their success,” he points out.
For Bart de Wever, president of the Flemish nationalist party N-VA, “the same trend is happening all over Europe at the moment.” There is a “wave of enormous anxiety” among citizens who feel “economically abandoned by their own elites,” he told the media.
“As unfair as it may seem to you, the extreme right is winning,” he adds. In opinion polls, his N-VA party is now the second largest in Flanders after Vlaams Belang.
Potential Vlaams Belang voters see migration as the most important political issue, followed by taxes and the economy. Reform of the Belgian state is significantly less important to them, according to the Politico survey.
Belgium was created in a chaotic, unplanned way — en stoemelings, in Brussels dialect. Gricken admits, however, that not all of his constituents may be emotionally moved by the idea of Flemish independence.
“It’s not that people don’t know. This is the first point of our program. However, I know that no one who is against independence will vote for my party or N-VA,” he added.
Road to divorce
Van Grieken’s strategy is for his party to become the largest in Flanders in next year’s elections, which would give him the prerogative to choose his coalition partner for the Flemish government. Ideally for him it would be the N-VA party.
The Flemish government will then issue a declaration of sovereignty to force the French-speaking coalition partners to negotiate the end of Belgium as it currently exists.
However, there are some hurdles even if Van Grieken wins. Within the N-VA there is bitter disagreement over whether to form a government with Vlaams Belang. Even if the N-VA takes the fateful step of aligning itself with the far right, the French-speaking side of Belgian politics is unlikely to come to the negotiating table, at least not initially.
Whatever happens next year, it will create further political instability in Belgium, and that in itself could help further the cause of independence.
Belgian Prime Minister Alexandre de Croix, who currently leads a tough seven-party coalition, came to power after elections in 2019. The vote was followed by an agonizing 500-day search for a coalition agreement, and since then De Croix has struggled to keep the ruling parties on the same page on key issues.
The drain of support for the parties in the center will make the formation of a national coalition government even more difficult. Ivan de Vader, an experienced political reporter who has written several books on Belgian politics, fears that this will create a vicious circle. “For me, what will happen at the federal level is much more explosive because there is a risk of a total blockade of political institutions,” he commented.
However, Van Grieken points out that Belgium is falling apart and the root of the problem is not the existence of a Flemish party, but that the country is not working. This is also the prerequisite for the creation of the Flemish party, he concludes.
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2023-07-22 06:16:00
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