Tensions on the Polish-Belarussian border are rising rapidly. NATO is closely monitoring the situation. What are the consequences of a possible escalation of the conflict? “That’s how the invasion of Ukraine started.”
Tensions have risen since Wagner mercenaries have been active in Belarus. Since the troops led by Yevgeny Priogzhin stopped their march on Moscow, part of them left for Belarus to train there.
That location is sensitive: Belarus served as a springboard for the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Russia wanted to quickly conquer Kyiv from the north. In addition, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is Russia’s only ally in Europe.
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The Wagner presence in Belarus evokes nervousness in Poland, as training takes place just a few kilometers from the border. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak then decided to send 1,000 soldiers and 200 military vehicles to the border.
Tensions rose further on Tuesday after an incident in the airspace. Poland alleged that two Belarusian attack helicopters illegally entered Polish airspace. Blaszczak immediately announced that he would send more reinforcements to the border. Belarus denied the accusation, citing the accusation as an excuse for Warsaw to stoke the fire at the border.
The situation is sensitive because, unlike Ukraine, Poland is a member of NATO. If Poland is attacked, other Member States must help the country. “And we are ready to assist Poland – if necessary – in defending its eastern border,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned earlier. “If they need support, they will get it.”
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The question is therefore whether Belarus is deliberately seeking confrontation with NATO by being so close to the Polish border. “If you really start training so close to the border, that is of course a very big middle finger,” says Nicolaas Kraft van Ermel. He is affiliated with the University of Groningen as an Eastern Europe expert.
“You have to remember that this is how the Russian invasion of Ukraine started,” says Kraft van Ermel. “Even then, there was training at the border. Then the Russian troops did not return but crossed the border.”
But Belarus can probably do little with the current Wagner troops. According to Kraft van Ermel, there are currently only a few thousand, perhaps only hundreds, of Wagner mercenaries.
Poland has a standing army of about 70,000 men and about a thousand tanks. According to military analysts, that is waiting lickingly for Wagner to try something.
The eyes are now mainly focused on the so-called Suwalki corridor. That is the narrow strip of land in the north of Poland that connects the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) with the rest of the NATO area. The piece of land separates the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad from Belarus.
“For example, if Russia wanted to annex Estonia and Latvia, the easiest way would be by far to occupy the Suwalki strip. The defense of those Baltic states would then be a lot more difficult,” says Kraft van Ermel.
With the accession of Finland and possibly Sweden in the long term, NATO also has more territory in the region. “The Swedish island of Gotland (off the coast of Latvia, ed.) Is really just an aircraft carrier,” says Kraft van Ermel.
Should enemy forces enter the Suwalki Corridor, NATO would immediately be faced with an Article 5 situation. That article guarantees that an attack on one Member State will be interpreted as an attack on all. “And that would have enormous consequences. Also for us,” says Kraft van Ermel.
It is unlikely that Russian troops will cross the border between Poland and Belarus any time soon. The Russians are currently fighting with all their might for every meter in Ukraine. Moreover, Putin’s “special military operation” is downright disappointing.
However, Russia may have an interest in sowing chaos and creating rifts in the West. Kraft van Ermel: “This kind of small-scale operations can of course play a role in this. Especially if you make it seem that it is Poland that is provoking the escalation.”
The latter already seems to be happening. Belarus constantly points to Poland as the one who is raising tensions. Minsk has been accusing Poland for years that the government in Warsaw is planning to annex Belarusian areas with a Polish minority, Kraft van Ermel explains.
An accident is in a small corner: the helicopters that entered Polish airspace on Tuesday could also be lost. And yet it provoked an immediate reaction from Warsaw. Moreover, Poland is not the only fuse in the powder keg. Russian missile attacks on grain depots on the Danube in Ukraine also landed only a few miles from Romanian NATO territory. “A drop-off is made in no time,” says Kraft van Ermel.
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2023-08-03 10:27:00
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