By Josthirl Aarom Arellano Ayala – Business Administration Student
Surely you have heard of the conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union in the 20th century, as this confrontation was named the Cold War. However, three decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, two super-powerful countries of the 21st century seem poised to stoke a second Cold War and we are talking about the United States and China. These factions are advancing in a spiral of threats, sanctions and accusations of espionage with unforeseeable consequences for them and for the rest of the world as well. So when did this Second Cold War start? In this article we are going to break down some points about the rivalry that arose between the United States and China.
To begin with, let’s talk a little about the beginning of the enmity of these countries. Some will say that it all started with Donald Trump’s election in November 2016, others will suggest that it was because of the complaint made by Mike Pence (Vice President of the United States) to Beijing. However, this rivalry originated in the technological dimension, as stated by Marcus (2021): “The new rivalry between the US and China involves the essential technologies that drive and will drive our future societies, such as artificial intelligence and 5G. ”. Both countries are even classified as pioneers in the manufacture of vehicles and spacecraft. It’s certainly a classic rivalry for dominance in science and technology. On the other hand, we are experiencing years of uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 virus.
Has the pandemic influenced this rivalry? The answer is yes, due to the circumstances that have been suffered to obtain the vaccine against COVID-19, it has made the competition between these two countries even more sour. According to the WHO, “of the seven vaccines currently in the second phase of testing, three have been developed by two Chinese companies, and two by American companies or research institutions” (Rahn, 2020). Is it a good thing to have the vaccine? Undoubtedly yes, but it is the first time that the development of a pandemic vaccine is related to geopolitical situations. And those affected will be the least economically strong countries, because to have access to a Chinese or American vaccine they must be linked to political conditions, that is, be part of one of the two blocks.
Finally, let us ask ourselves the following question: What global consequences would the origin of a Second Cold War bring? The consequences of a Cold War II would undoubtedly be worse than those of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, because the Soviet Union at that time was a declining power and had no mutual trade with the United States, while China is the world’s largest economy and has deep ties to the United States in particular. As Nouriel Roubini (2019) states, “a large-scale cold war could initiate a new stage of deglobalization, or at least the division of the world economy into two incompatible economic blocs”; further on he adds that “there would be an important restriction on the exchange of goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and the digital world would be divided into two” Internets “whose respective Western and Chinese nodes would not connect to each other” . That said, the possibility of a hot war instead of a cold one cannot be ruled out.
In short, China has many strengths, but also many vulnerabilities. The United States has great weaknesses, but in its favor it has exceptional dynamism and a capacity to reinvent itself. The imbalance between these two countries may, in fact, seriously affect the future of the entire world, but it is not yet clear. I think this Cold War will last longer than the past rivalry; I know that it is not a positive perspective, but it is my realistic point when analyzing all the events that these two countries have experienced. It will be a long journey and this is just beginning.
MOXIE is the ULACIT Channel (www.ulacit.ac.cr), produced by and for university students, in partnership with the independent journalistic outlet Delfino.cr, with the purpose of providing them with a space to generate and disseminate their ideas. It is called Moxie – which in urban English means having the ability to face difficulties with intelligence, boldness and courage – in honor of our students, whose “moxie” characterizes them.
Bibliographic references: Marcus, J. (2021). Why talk of “Cold War” between the US and China “is deeply dangerous.” BBC News. Rahn, W. (2020). Race between China and the US could hinder global vaccination against coronavirus. Roubini, N. (2019). The global consequences of a cold war between China and the US.
2023-08-02 10:11:17
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