There is huge pressure on robusta coffee. If we go back and remember that last year we saw record prices due to climate change, this year – due to inflation and other macroeconomic reasons, producers are turning to robusta much more. Vietnam is the leading producer of robusta, but there is not much potential to develop the quantity there. Arabica and Robusta are the two main types of coffee, and the high prices of Arabica last year led to an increase in the demand for Robusta, commented Desislava Yordanova, head of the team of coffee buyers at the German company NewCoffee, on the air of the show. Business start” with presenter Hristo Nikolov.
According to Yordanova, it was the high prices of Arabica last year that led to a reorientation of buyers and an increase in demand for the cheaper robusta. For this reason, the price of the alternative has been rising in recent weeks, reaching a nearly 15-year high.
When asked whether the latest harvest in Vietnam is actually the lowest in 4 years, Desislava Yordanova explained: “Production in Vietnam is 27-29 million bags of 60 kg. For 2022-2023 we can say that the production of 27 million is lower compared to past years, but we have also seen lower numbers like in 2016-2017. from 25 million. The problem is that coffee from Vietnam is used in many countries, including Vietnam, and currently the premiums are record high.”
According to Yordanova, there is speculation in the green coffee market. She emphasizes that if we look at arabica and robusta and the influence of the two exchanges – New York and London, we can notice that the structure of the London exchange is reversed, i.e. the price of the following months is lower than the price of the previous one, which is indicator of lack of coffee and speculation. And while premiums for robusta are increasing and speculation is on the rise, those for arabica are falling.
”The only thing that can save the situation at the moment is the demand for coffee, because inflation is a huge factor that affects the global demand for coffee. Consumers are more demanding in terms of coffee prices, and there is no such growth in demand, which should be 2-3% per year,” said the guest.
As another robusta producing country, Yordanova cites Brazil as an example.
According to her, the robusta production there will be very good this year. Interestingly, Brazil has the motivation and tendency to reach and even surpass Vietnam, but I am not sure that this coffee will reach Europe, as the distance is greater and the transportation costs will be higher. The quality of coffee itself is not the same as in Vietnam, but other countries such as Colombia and the USA are also focusing on robusta.”
You can see in the video of whether the users of the more expensive robusta will reorient themselves towards Arabica Bloomberg TV Bulgaria
2023-05-25 19:35:00
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