Cho Kuk, leader of the Fatherland Innovation Party, clenches his fists at a meeting of party members in the Daegu area held at a restaurant in Jung-gu, Daegu on the 10th./Newsis
The landscape of the April 10 general elections is fluctuating as the approval rating of the Fatherland Innovation Party as a proportional party catches up with the proportional party of the Democratic Party of Korea in some opinion polls. Initially, this general election started with the Democratic Party in the lead, but due to the Democratic Party’s nomination wave symbolized by the ‘screaming death’, the People Power Party’s approval rating recently surpassed the Democratic Party. However, after the emergence of the Fatherland Innovation Party, the opposition supporters who turned their backs on Lee Jae-myeong’s Democratic Party joined the ‘Jimin Bijo (Democratic Party in the district, the Fatherland Innovation Party in proportion)’, showing the phenomenon of the overall ‘opposition pie’ growing. If opposition-leaning voters come to the polls to vote for the Fatherland Innovation Party (proportional), it is highly likely that the approval rating for the Democratic Party in their district will naturally increase.
In a poll conducted by Chosun Ilbo and TV Chosun on the 9th and 10th in five major constituencies conducted by K-Stat Research, the Fatherland Innovation Party recorded 15-24% in each region when asked about the intention to vote for a proportional party. In the KBS/Korea Research opinion poll released on the 11th, in proportional party votes, the Democratic Alliance for Democracy, a proportional satellite party of the Democratic Party, came out at 16% and the Fatherland Innovation Party at 17%. An opposition official said, “If the Fatherland Innovation Party continues to gain momentum, the opposition may win a landslide victory in the general election.”
Graphics = Baek Hyung-seon
The Democratic Party, which is concerned about the dispersion of its support base, is emphasizing the ‘Democratic Party in both constituencies and proportionality’, but there are expectations that the Fatherland Innovation Party will join forces or become compatible after the general election. In the 2020 general election, there is a precedent that matches the Democratic Party after the Open Democratic Party, comprised of pro-Korea figures, produced three proportionally elected candidates. In this general election, even if there is competition for now, the result is that they are ‘on our side.’
On the other hand, the People Power Party’s response is that it was caught off guard by the incident. In the first place, the People Power Party did not pay much attention to former Justice Minister Cho Kuk’s move to create the party. Former Minister Cho was sentenced to two years in prison in the second trial on charges of corruption in children’s entrance exams and neglecting the Blue House inspection, so even if he is elected, there is a high possibility that he will lose his seat as a member of the National Assembly when the final ruling of the Supreme Court is made. In this situation, it was thought that it would be difficult for the ‘Chukuk Party’ to become a meaningful variable in the general election. However, an emergency was put in place as the Fatherland Innovation Party caused an unexpected sensation. The People Power Party has tried to block the wind, saying, “The solidarity between the Democratic Party and the Fatherland Innovation Party is solidarity with criminals,” but it is still not enough. In the political world, there was a saying that “if the Democratic Party and the Fatherland Innovation Party together secure more than 150 seats, it could actually be considered a victory for the left wing.”
Cho Kuk, leader of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party (right), is handing a bouquet of flowers to singer Lia at the induction ceremony held at the headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul on the morning of the 11th./News 1
In the political world, there is an analysis that supporters who were disappointed with the Democratic Party flocked to the Fatherland Innovation Party. It is said that the Fatherland Innovation Party is attracting opposition supporters who are negative about Representative Lee Jae-myung’s system or critical of the Democratic Party. An opposition official said, “Slogans such as ‘3 years is a long time’ and ‘We will bring down Yoon Seok-yeol’ provide catharsis to the opposition’s hard-core supporters.” Pro-Moon supporters who turned their backs on the Democratic Party’s ‘unscrupulous’ nomination are also flowing into the Fatherland Innovation Party.
In particular, it is analyzed that the Democratic Party’s traditional supporters, who are critical of its alliance with the Progressive Party, chose the Fatherland Innovation Party over the Democratic Party’s proportional party. It is observed that some of the Honam voters who are negative towards Representative Lee Jae-myung also chose the Fatherland Innovation Party over former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon’s New Future. Choi Byeong-cheon, director of the New Growth Economy Research Institute, said, “Among the three pillars of the Democratic Party’s basic support base, pro-Moon, pro-Myung, and Honam, pro-Moon and Honam voters have turned to the Fatherland Innovation Party.”
If the Fatherland Innovation Party makes progress in proportional voting, the Democratic Party may lose a significant number of proportional seats. As shown in the results of the JTBC and Metavoice opinion poll released on the 11th, if the Democratic Party’s satellite party receives 21% and the Fatherland Innovation Party receives 19% in the proportional party vote, the two parties will win 10 and 9 seats, respectively. In this atmosphere, the Democratic Party is emphasizing solidarity with the Fatherland Innovation Party, but is promoting the so-called ‘bullet theory’ to its supporters, asking the Democratic Party to support regional and proportional votes. However, there are also expectations that the advancement of the Fatherland Innovation Party will eventually lead to an increase in voter turnout, which will lead to an increase in the Democratic Party’s constituency vote rate as well. The Fatherland Innovation Party also takes the position that “there can be synergy between the Democratic Party and us.” This means that the pie for the entire opposition party is growing, and for now, various opinion polls show that the Fatherland Innovation Party’s plan is working. Representative Cho and Rep. Hwang Un-ha, who left the Democratic Party and joined the Fatherland Innovation Party, announced on the 11th that they had applied for proportional representation candidates. In effect, Representative Cho made a ‘self-nomination’ to the party he led.
The People Power Party is nervous about the phenomenon of the Fatherland Innovation Party. In particular, due to the Democratic Party’s nomination scandal, the ‘government judgment theory’ that was buried in the second term is highlighted, and some of the ruling party’s supporters are wary of turning from proportional voting to the new reform party. A ruling party official said, “So far, the ruling and opposition party election structure has been dominated by the ‘Han Dong-hoon vs. Lee Jae-myung’ confrontation, and Emergency Response Committee Chairman Han Dong-hoon has successfully turned the situation around by launching fierce attacks against Representative Lee every day.” However, with the rise of the Fatherland Innovation Party, President Yoon is being summoned again to replace Chairman Han. Yoon Tae-gon, head of the Political Analysis Department at The Moa, said, “With the emergence of the Chokuk Innovation Party, the ‘prosecution dictatorship’ frame is emerging again rather than the issue of people’s livelihood.” He added, “As the ruling party, the People Power Party must focus on its pledges for people’s livelihood in order to capture the support of moderate voters.” did.
The ruling party emphasizes that former Minister Cho was sentenced to two years in prison in the second trial on charges of corruption in the entrance exam, and Rep. Hwang Un-ha, who recently left the Democratic Party and joined it, was sentenced to three years in prison in the first trial for interfering in the Ulsan mayoral election. . The idea is to block the inflow of moderates by imprinting solidarity with CEO Lee Jae-myeong, who is currently on trial, as ‘criminal solidarity.’ People Power Party floor leader Yoon Jae-ok said at an emergency response committee meeting on the 11th, “There is a movement between the Democratic Party and the New Cho Kuk Party to form a so-called ‘Jimin Bijo’ with the Democratic Party for constituencies and the Cho Kuk Party for proportionality. This is an arrogant idea that looks down on the people.” He said. However, internally, voices are growing calling for the ruling party to diversify its ‘speakers’ to attack former Minister Cho’s ‘acting as a victim’.
2024-03-11 20:52:00
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