Source: Sinosteel Futures Author: Sinosteel Futures
Research report text
【logic】
Yesterday, the ferrous metal plate fluctuated, and Shuangjiao closed down slightly.
Spot sideThe scope of the first round of coke price increase has been expanded, but it has not yet landed, and coke steel is still in the game process.coking coalThe spot rebound trend slowed down, and the number of unsold auctions in the auction market increased.
Recently, the Market Committee of the China Jiaotong Association held an analysis meeting. The participants reported that due to the impact of the mine accident, the price of coking coal has risen sharply recently, and the losses of coking enterprises have increased; while the macroeconomic environment will continue to improve, the demand for replenishment of steel mills is still strong, and in the near futurecokeExport orders have increased. Therefore, it is decided to reduce the load, and it is recommended to limit production by about 30%; reduce or stop the purchase of high-priced coal to reduce costs; optimize sales channels, and determine the price of coke through negotiation according to market changes.
Judging from the current fundamentals of coke, most coke companies are in a state of loss or slight profit recently, and the capacity utilization rate is basically maintained at about 72%, which is at a low level. It is expected that there is not much room for further decline; in terms of demand, the recent increase in steel trade volume, The gradual depletion of inventories has promoted the strong performance of steel prices, the profitability of steel mills has improved, and the overall enthusiasm for increasing production is good. Overall, the demand for coke in the future will still form a positive driving effect on prices, which is conducive to the increase in coke prices.
In terms of coking coal, the safety inspection of coal mines has been strengthened recently, and production in the surrounding areas of the accident coal mine has been suspended. The supply of coking coal is facing a phased contraction. However, the increase in coke prices has not been implemented, and the rebound trend of coal prices has slowed down.
In terms of imported coal, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has remained good. Since March, the daily customs clearance of Ganqimaodu Port has continuously exceeded 1,000 vehicles; there are new orders for Australian coal in the future, and the transaction price is still at a high level.
【View】
Recently, the fundamentals of coal coke are generally positive, the spot market is relatively strong, the rise of futures prices is slightly weak, the basis difference of coking coal is gradually restored, the price of coke futures is temporarily maintained at a premium, and the short-term market may maintain a shock operation.
【Later attention/risk factors】
Pay attention to the customs clearance of imported coal, changes in the pace of blast furnace production in steel mills, and the increase in coke companies.
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