The right-wing voter, including those from VVD, switched en masse to Wilders in the end and gave the PVV the big win

The unexpectedly large gain for the PVV in the House of Representatives elections can partly be explained by the switch of a large group of VVD voters to Wilders’ party in the last campaign days. This is evident from the Ipsos voter survey, which was conducted on election day on behalf of the NOS. A total of 15 percent of VVD voters who voted for the liberals in 2021 voted for the PVV last Wednesday. Because the VVD won 34 seats in the previous election, this is a large group of more than 350,000 liberal voters who switched to Wilders, good for four to five additional seats.

The switch of such a large group of voters from the centre-right VVD to the radical right PVV is very striking, says Ipsos researcher Sjoerd van Heck. “For a long time, voters only changed parties within the left-wing, centre-right and radical right blocs. There were at most minimal shifts between these blocks of parties. With this win, the PVV breaks this pattern and brings in a large group of VVD members.”

Ipsos conducted a representative sample of almost 3,700 voters during the polls. The agency also asked those who switched to the PVV about the moment and motive of their choice, and this showed that many new PVV voters decided to switch in the last week of the campaign. Van Heck: “A large number of VVD members who defected say: I voted for the PVV for strategic reasons to create a right-wing cabinet.” Given this motive, it is extra remarkable that VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz announced on Friday that the VVD, at least for the time being, is not prepared to negotiate a cabinet with the PVV.

Overstappers

The PVV, less surprisingly, also attracted many voters from other radical right parties. Almost one in three FVD voters from 2021 – then still good for eight seats – now chose the PVV, and no fewer than half of the JA21 voters from then (then three seats). The PVV also motivated another group of voters, namely non-voters: 1 in 10 PVV voters who now opted for the party would still stay at home in 2021.

In two other parties, the relatively high percentage of switches is striking: just over 1 in 10 voters who voted CDA in the previous election now switched to Wilders, and this also applies to 16 percent of SP voters. The latter can be explained quite logically, says Van Heck. “There are many similarities between the voters of PVV and SP. They are socio-economically quite left-wing, but culturally more conservative.”

‘Immigration and asylum’ was the most important reason for PVV voters to choose the party, according to the Ipsos research. This played “a major role” for 80 percent of PVV voters; PVV members also considered the themes of healthcare and ‘the wallet’ to be of great importance. 70 percent of PVV voters “completely agree” with the statement that immigration of people from outside Europe should be limited as much as possible.

The fact that migration was such a dominant campaign theme is partly due to the VVD. The VVD dropped the cabinet this summer over migration, VVD leader Yesilgöz made limiting migration a spearhead in her campaign, and left the door open for cooperation with the PVV. That unintentionally worked well for Wilders at the end of the campaign, Van Heck thinks. “Voters see the PVV as the ‘issue owner’ when it comes to migration, the party is the most trusted in this regard, even more so than the VVD. Then it is not surprising that you get such a flow of voters towards the PVV.”

In terms of profile, the PVV voter is quite average. For example, PVV voters are fairly evenly distributed across age groups and in that respect they are in line with the Dutch average. For example, 27 percent of PVV voters are between 18 and 34 years old, and half are over 50, which exactly corresponds to the average in the Dutch population. When it comes to education level, the PVV voter continues to deviate somewhat. The PVV is overrepresented among the practically educated (29 percent compared to the 21 percent average in the Netherlands), and underrepresented among the highly educated (24 percent compared to the 40 percent average).

Another big winner, Pieter Omtzigt’s NSC, tapped into a whole new electorate by winning twenty seats. The Ipsos research confirms the picture that opinion research already showed during the campaign: NSC is pulling voters away from many different parties, from left to right. 12 percent of voters who voted for D66 in 2021 now voted for NSC. 16 percent of 2021 SP voters went to NSC on Wednesday, and 12 percent of Christian Union voters. The largest group comes from the center-right: one in three CDA voters of 2021 (then still good for fifteen seats) now chose Omtzigt, and 10 percent of the large group of VVD voters (good for 34 seats).

Omtzigt competed for a long time with BBB for transfers from the CDA, but won that battle with flying colors. Of the 2021 CDA voters, only 6 percent switched to Caroline van der Plas’s party. Because of the switchers, Omtzigt inherits a typical CDA problem: its voters are noticeably old. 63 percent are over 50, which is above average, because in the Netherlands only half of the population is over fifty.

In terms of support, NSC really seems to be becoming a centre-right party, Van Heck sees. “At the beginning of the campaign, the appeal to left-wing voters was even greater, but during the campaign Omtzigt clearly positioned itself more to the right. That suits his supporters: NSC voters place themselves right in the middle and, for example, are strongly in favor of limiting migration.”

With GroenLinks-PvdA it is striking that the combined party attracted many strategic voters on the left. More than a third of GL-PvdA voters tell Ipsos that their vote was strategic. Many switches came from D66 in particular: 31 percent of D66 voters from 2021 now chose GroenLinks-PvdA. The left-wing combination also attracted many voters from Volt (23 percent of their 2021 electorate) and parties such as the SP and the Party for the Animals. Van Heck sees that this has not helped the link as a whole. “Timmermans conducted a moderate campaign to also attract voters from the middle, but he clearly did not succeed.”

What is also striking about the GroenLinks-PvdA supporters is the very high percentage of higher educated people: 62 percent, compared to only 11 percent of lower educated people. Although the number of young voters in the GroenLinks party combination has increased, the number of those with primary and secondary education is lagging behind. For parties such as the PVV, VVD and NSC, the distribution is much more even. While GroenLinks-PvdA also had the ambition to become a real people’s party again. Van Heck: “They have not yet been able to break the pattern that mainly highly educated people vote GroenLinks-PvdA, so in that respect I do not yet see a broad popular party.”