Is 2020 just the year of the covid? Louis-Vincent Gave, managing director of asset manager Gavekal, in Hong Kong, suggests taking a step back from immediate information. In a magazine interview Barron’s, it shows that the key event of 2001 was not in retrospect the World Trade Center attack but the entry of China into the WHO. In 2007, it turned out that the subprime mortgage crisis had less long-term effects than the arrival of the smartphone. For Louis-Vincent Gave, 2020 will be the year in which the per capita debt increased by $ 12,800 in the United States, $ 5,300 in France and Germany, only $ 1,300 in China. “The West has responded to covid with a massive increase in budget deficits, which will reduce its room for maneuver in the future, unlike Asia and in particular China,” he said. The manager says he is very bullish on the Chinese currency and Asian bonds in local currencies. And he is far from the only one in this case. Many strategists, like those at Credit Suisse, recommend China for the 2021 perspective.
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