The Return of Russian Immigrants: A Look at the Factors Influencing Immigration Decisions

Why do Russians who fled choose to return to their home country?

Since the war between Russia and Ukraine began in February last year, many Russians have fled Russia. In September last year, the Kremlin issued a mobilization order claiming to recruit 300,000 reserve troops, triggering another wave of emigration. The Financial Times pointed out that after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the number of immigrants leaving Russia has reached 820,000, the largest number since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. They include anti-war people and a large number of young professionals, such as engineers in the technology industry. In addition to war and military service, the reasons for fleeing also include economic considerations – successive Western economic sanctions have made all walks of life optimistic about Russia’s prospects.

However, now that the war between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than a year, some Russian immigrants have begun to return to their home country. Re:Russia, a research organization established by Russian scholars in exile, pointed out that President Putin has not planned another large-scale mobilization order, and the Russian government is trying its best to Maintaining “normality” in Moscow allows many immigrants to choose to return to their country to settle temporarily or permanently.

One of the important factors why Russian immigrants choose to return home is still economic considerations; affected by the war, Western countries have already faced inflationary problems after the epidemic that have worsened. In the United Kingdom, which has the most severe inflation in Europe, the inflation rate has even exceeded 10% for several consecutive months. The inflation rate slowed down in the second half of this year due to successive interest rate hikes by various countries. The high cost of living became unaffordable for Russian immigrants, so they decided to return home.

The Financial Times interviewed a former consultant at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), a multinational organization. The consultant was transferred to the Azerbaijan branch after BCG closed its Moscow office. He recently obtained a management position at Yandex, Russia’s largest search engine. Therefore, Decided to return to China; he said that the salary he could get at Yandex was very considerable. Another former Russian BCG executive returned to Moscow to start his own business. He pointed out that it costs about US$2,000 per month to rent an entire high-end apartment in the city center in Moscow. The rent is cheaper than in Western Europe, and the food and beverage prices are much higher than in Western Europe. low.

Two researchers from the European University Institute (EUI), Emil Kamalov and Ivetta Sergeeva, have been studying the outflow of Russian immigrants since the war between Russia and Ukraine. They also pointed out that compared with the total number of Russians, The population is average, and the respondents in the study are mostly highly educated, politically concerned, and young. However, more than 15% of them have returned to Russia, partly to resolve personal matters and partly to settle permanently. “This is definitely not economic migration in the traditional sense,” Sergeyeva said. “These are people who have been very capable experts in Russia but are now losing their money and status… For many people, (abroad) Quality of life deteriorates.”

For the Kremlin, which wants to emphasize that Russia is not affected by war and sanctions and that people are living as usual, it is natural to seize the phenomenon of Russians who fled the country and began to return to the country. Putin claimed in June that Russians who left the country since the war began, Half of them have returned home.

The statements of interviewees who returned to Russia quoted by the Financial Times seem to confirm the Kremlin’s attempt – restaurants and bars in Moscow are still open for business as usual. Although Western catering companies such as McDonald’s and Starbucks have withdrawn from Russia due to sanctions, local Russians Entrepreneurs took over the original restaurant assets, renamed it and reopened it. Even after American film producers suspended the release of new films in Russia, theaters across Russia continued to screen pirated versions of “Barbie.”

In addition to living conditions, the successive wars in Armenia and Israel and Palestine this year have also made the situation of Russian immigrants more complicated. According to the Jewish Agency for Israel, a non-profit organization, more than 35,000 Russians entered Israel last year, and many of them chose to stay; while Armenia is a traditional ally of Russia. After the Russo-Ukrainian war, During the immigration wave, Armenia received only the most Russian immigrants after Kazakhstan and Serbia. However, after Azerbaijan regained control of the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in September, the Armenian Prime Minister announced that he would reform the pro-Russian foreign policy, further reducing the conflict. Central Asia’s Zerbaijan blamed Russia for its rapid defeat of separatist forces, and local anti-Russian sentiment grew.

Russian officials even claimed that many Russian immigrants returned home because of foreign hostility and suspicion. For example, they quoted Czech President Petr Pavel as saying that “security agencies of various countries should monitor Russians living in the West.” Russian State Duma Chairman Accordingly, Vyacheslav Volodin alleged that Pavel wanted to put Russian immigrants into “concentration camps.”

Russian anthropologist Alexandra Arkhipova analyzed the official Russian statement and said: “Official propaganda is doing its best to make us believe that immigrants, especially IT professionals, have returned to Russia in large numbers.”

However, after returning to Russia, immigrants may still have to face the economic problem of soaring prices – Russia is also facing inflation. The inflation rate in September reached 6%, which is equivalent to the British data for the same month, which has the most severe inflation in Western Europe. The Russian Central Bank has 4 It raised interest rates for the first time, to 15% by the end of October, in an attempt to curb inflation.

The ruble’s exchange rate is still falling, which has also led the Kremlin to call for tightening monetary policy. Since February last year, the ruble’s exchange rate against the US dollar has fallen by about a quarter.

This is not the first time the Russian Central Bank has raised interest rates significantly after the Russia-Ukraine war. At the beginning of the war last year, Russia’s interest rates were once raised from 9.5% to 20%, but they began to cut interest rates soon after. But now the effect of raising interest rates on stabilizing the Russian economy may be even more limited. The “BBC” pointed out that due to Western sanctions, Russia has difficulty attracting investment.

One of the main factors for the ruble’s weakening is that foreign trade has been hit by sanctions. According to EU data, the EU’s total imports from Russia last year fell by 58%, of which non-energy imports fell by nearly 60%. The most obvious declines were in steel, precious metals and timber. ; In the first quarter of this year, total imports of non-energy goods fell by more than 75%, and energy goods dropped by about 80%. As sanctions from Western countries effectively reduce Russia’s revenue from its main export products, Russia increasingly uses RMB for transactions and pricing.

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US media broke the news that the Biden administration had privately received a “stern warning” from US diplomats in Arab countries: “The United States’ strong support for Israel’s devastating and deadly military operations in Gaza is costing us a generation of Arab people.”

CNN reported on November 9 that the Arab world’s anger against the United States is still growing, and these cables highlight the concerns of U.S. officials about this situation.

A cable sent by the U.S. Embassy in Oman on November 8 stated, “We are losing miserably on the information battlefield.” The cable cited conversations with “a range of credible and sober contacts” and warned that strong U.S. support for Israel’s actions was viewed as “substantial criminal and moral culpability that may amount to war crimes.” The cable, written by the second-highest official at the U.S. Embassy in Oman, was sent to the White House National Security Council, the CIA and the FBI, among other agencies.

CNN also obtained another cable from the US Embassy in Egypt, which forwarded to Washington a comment from an Egyptian state-run newspaper – “President Biden’s cruelty and indifference to the Palestinians exceeds that of previous US presidents.”

According to reports, against the backdrop of Gaza’s destruction and worsening humanitarian crisis, the Biden administration is under increasing domestic and foreign pressure for its support for Israel. In recent days, U.S. allies in the Arab world have clearly expressed their deep indignation at the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Although the White House has rejected calls for a ceasefire, the other side is working hard to increase aid to Gaza and push humanitarian relief supplies into Gaza.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken attended the summit convened by Jordan’s foreign minister and attended by senior diplomats from Egypt, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, as well as Palestinian officials. At the summit, Arab leaders called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, while Blinken reiterated U.S. opposition that it would buy Hamas time to regroup and launch another attack on Israel.

The White House said on November 9 that Israel had agreed to a “four-hour daily suspension” of military operations in northern Gaza.

U.S. officials told CNN that despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s public opposition to the “humanitarian pause” approach, the United States and Israel reached an agreement in principle on the suspension after Blinken visited Israel last week, and Netanyahu was criticized for doing so. Considered to be compromising with allies. Officials pointed out that similar situations have occurred before, such as when the Israeli government first opposed the entry of relief supplies into Gaza and later agreed.

U.S. officials believe that Israel’s “pause” is somewhat of a progress, and the United States hopes to continue to advance on this basis.

CNN said that despite this, concerns within the Biden administration about U.S. support for Israel are still increasing.

Some senior officials say privately that they simply cannot stand some justifications for Israeli military action; calls among government employees for U.S. support for a ceasefire are growing; and others are horrified by images of Palestinian civilians being killed by Israeli airstrikes.

In addition, Biden faces growing frustration at home.

Reports revealed that just last week, Biden encountered a protester calling for a ceasefire at a private fundraiser. Additionally, pro-Palestinian protests take place daily near the White House compound. This week, an entrance near the West Wing was covered in bright red handprints – meant to imitate the blood of Palestinian victims – along with the words “Genocide Joe.”

It is worth mentioning that CNN also disclosed in another article on November 8 that in the face of pressure from domestic and foreign countries, anxiety within the Biden administration is rising.

“As Biden’s aides become increasingly helpless towards Israel, anxiety, uneasiness and anger are spreading in every corner of the White House.” CNN stated in the article that on the one hand, Israel has ignored the “persuasion” of the United States and refused to make changes to reduce civilian casualties. offensive line; on the other hand, the United States continues to support Israel and goes against the international community, refusing to call for a ceasefire and publicly criticizing Israel.

On November 3, the National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) quoted a number of former and current senior U.S. government officials as saying that as the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip worsened sharply, the military operations launched by Israel have been criticized. Biden administration officials have begun to worry that close cooperation with Israel will lead to the United States being “completely isolated” on the international stage, and the United States may even “take the blame” for all the actions of the Israeli military. However, there is currently no “obvious plan” ” This can be avoided.

So far, this round of conflict has killed more than 12,300 people on both sides of Palestine and Israel. According to the Palestinian Gaza Strip health department on November 9, since the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out on October 7, the death toll in the Gaza Strip has risen to 10,812, including 4,412 children. In addition, 165 people died in the West Bank. According to Israeli data, more than 1,400 Israelis have died in this round of conflicts.

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2023-11-11 04:46:19