We knew that it hadn’t all started in China in December, but now a study published in November with the first signature of the director of the National Cancer Institute of Milan, Giovanni Apolone, tells us something absolutely unexpected: in September 2019, 14% of the sample examined had antibodies to the new Coronavirus. In other words, SARS-Cov-2 was circulating in Italy well before February, and probably since summer 2019.
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The origin of the research
Everything is born in the context of “Smile” lung cancer screening, which from September 2019 to March 2020 enrolled 959 healthy volunteers to undergo spiral CT scan of the lungs and blood tests. The news of the Chinese epidemic in January and therefore the arrival in Italy in February must have turned on a light bulb in the researchers of the National Cancer Institute, who together with colleagues from the universities of Milan and Siena performed the serological test on all the samples. of blood stored. Result: Of 959 samples, 111 were positive for immunoglobulin G (16 cases) or for immunoglobulin M (97 cases). Of these 111 positives, 23 date back to September, October 27, November 26, December 11, January 30 and February 21. The positives come from 13 regions, half from Lombardy followed by Piedmont, Lazio, Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Veneto.
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Data on neutralizing antibodies
Of the 111 cases, 6 also tested positive for antibodies neutralizing the virus, 4 of which were already in early October. And perhaps this data is the most significant. A prevalence of positives greater than 10% does not seem to agree with subsequent serological studies, such as the national Istat-ISS study of 2.5% of the population. As he explains Giovanni Apolone: «The prevalence is reduced when we look at the validated cases of the neutralization test, equal to 6 positive, of which 4 in October. The relevant data is this, not the proportion of positives, however suggestive given the correspondence with the well-known regional prevalence ».
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The virus already on track last summer and atypical lung diseases
These data confirm suspicions of the circulation of the virus in Italy well before February 20, probably from summer 2019. “As early as November 2019, many general practitioners started reporting the appearance of severe respiratory symptoms in frail elderly people with atypical bilateral bronchitis, which has been attributed, in absence of news on the new virus, to aggressive forms of seasonal flu “, recalls the study. Well, now we can say it with more confidence: it was not flu, but the first signs of Covid, a new disease that no one noticed until late alarm launched by China at the end of December. The authors of the study are the scholars and researchers Giovanni a Apolone, Emanuele Montopoli, Alessandro Manenti, Mattia Boeri, Federica Sabia, Inesa Hyeseni, Livia Mazzini, Donata Martinuzzi, Laura Cantone, Gianluca milanese, Stefano Sestini, Paola Suatoni, Alfonso Marchianò, Valentina Bollati , Gabriella Sozzi, Ugo Pastorino. The title of the research is Unexpected detection of SARS-Cove2 antibodies in the pre-pandemic period in Italy, Published on Tumors Journal, released on November 11. 2020.
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November 15, 2020 (change November 15, 2020 | 13:27)
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