The relapse of the Euribor will barely save 7 euros per year to the mortgaged

The Euribor maintains its particular roller coaster of data. After rise slightly in the months of September and October, the main indicator of variable mortgages says goodbye to November with a new descent.

In this case, the index ends the month at -0.485%, a figure that will allow variable rate mortgages to once again notice a small reduction in their monthly installments, since the end of November is slightly below the -0.481% of a year ago.

According to iAhorro, citizens who have to review their mortgage with the closing of the November indicator will save just between three and seven euros per year. What’s more, this may be the last month the revision is down. And not because the Euribor is going to rise, but because the difference with the previous year’s data will not be lower but higher, as can be seen in the graph below.

In the case of a mortgage of 150,000 euros at 30 years with Euribor + 0.99%, the mortgaged will pay 536.23 euros compared to the 536.51 that he paid last month. The saving is only 0.28 euros per month or, what is the same, 3.36 euros per year. “This difference is so small because this month the Euribor has closed at -0.485% and a year ago it was at -0.481%, just 0.004 points higher than now,” they stand out from iAhorro. In the case of a 30-year mortgage of 300,000 euros with a Euribor spread + 0.99%, You will pay 1,072.47 euros this month while a month ago you paid 1,073.02. A saving of 0.55 euros per month or 6.6 euros per year.

No big changes to the Euribor in sight

“It seems that we are already getting used to these cyclical movements of the Euribor. In this case, the trend of a year ago is repeating, when the indicator was about to reach -0.5%, although we had to wait until January 2021 for it to become a reality. It is possible that in the coming months we will have another record low, especially after the latest statements by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, in which she indicated that there is no interest rate hike now or in 2022 ”, explains the director of Mortgages of iAhorro, Simone Colombelli .

According to this expert, “the rising prices has caused inflation has skyrocketed in recent months. Faced with this situation, many analysts expected the ECB to take some measure in this regard, and one of the options was to raise interest rates. However, the president of the ECB has maintained her speech, since, in her words, “higher inflation puts pressure on people’s real incomes, especially those who are in the lower part of the income distribution. This means that, for now, from the European institution they will not react with a rise in interest rates, which usually helps the Euribor rise “, adds this expert.

In this context, experts also do not foresee large swings in the Euribor in the short and medium term. For example, Bankinter, in its latest forecasts, foresees a Euribor in negative territory, at least, until 2023. Thus, for example, it expects to lay off this year at -0.45%, while for 2022 it estimates -0.32% and in 2023, -0.18%.

“The Euribor will anticipate the ECB’s monetary policy and if you expect interest rates to rise, it will tend to rise, but that, to this day, I do not contemplate it “, recently assured Rafael Alonso, banking analyst, Bankinter’s Department of Analysis and Markets, who also does not estimate that the monetary authority Europe moves tab, at least, until 2024, and, if the Euribor anticipates it, the recovery of the index, according to this expert, we would see it from 2023.

“We continue to be facing a favorable moment for buying a home”

With a Euribor at a minimum, or at least in negative territory, experts also agree on the right moment to request a mortgage. “Today, we are still facing a favorable moment compared to previous years for the purchase of a home. The interest rate has reached an all-time low (1.94%) in the contracting of new mortgage loans. Like the average amount at a fixed rate, which has stood at 2.40%, also very close to its historical minimum (2.38% in the second quarter of this year) “, says Sergio Carbajal, head of Rastreator Mortgages.

“So much so,” Carbajal continues, “that the banks continue to maximize all their efforts because of the moment we’re going through, offering improvements and new conditions to attract new customers and thus facilitate access to mortgage credit, as is the case with entities such as CaixaBank, Kutxabank or Evo Banco, which reach agreements with tools such as Rastreator to offer their customers rates lower than the market average “.

Likewise, the entities maintain their particular mortgage war, currently focused on the fixed rate. “In addition to the monetary policy that the ECB is following, the offers from financial institutions are positioning us in one of the best times to ask for a mortgage loan. In recent weeks, four of the major banks they have lowered their offers in the fixed rate in order to attract the last clients of this 2021 ”, emphasizes Colombelli.

According to this expert, “although the Euribor remains at a minimum, some buyers prefer not to gamble in the face of new drastic changes in the index that place it at higher levels. For this reason, the percentage of fixed mortgages is still ahead of the variable, standing at 65.4% of the 35,329 constituted, with an average amount of 136,527 euros, according to the latest data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) “.

Intense year-end straight for mortgaged futures

Regarding the final stretch of the year and the mortgage contracting, the Mortgage Director of iAhorro assures that “November and December are two months that usually overlap in the mortgage business. The holidays of the last two months of the year cause times are very tight for all those citizens who want to sign their loan before the end of 2021 “.” Depending on the entity and the autonomous community, it is very difficult to sign something after the December bridge, as is the case of Catalonia. However, others give us a few more days and it is possible to close operations just before Christmas. If this is the case of a citizen, he has very few days left to finish the year changing house “, concludes the director of Mortgages of iAhorro.

Despite this, the balance for 2021 is very positive, since the latest data from the INE show that the mortgage market has reached pre-pandemic levels. And optimism is expected to continue for the next fiscal year.

“Looking ahead to 2022, the numbers are even expected to be more favorable, since everything points to the investment purchase will continue to grow and an increase in home purchases by foreigners is also expected, which this third quarter has reached 10.77% “, adds Carbajal.

“Still, it is recommended be aware of the rising cost of mortgage payments in the coming months, since in October the rise in the CPI was 5.5%, reaching historical highs, which may mean a rise in the price of housing, and, of course, see in detail all mortgage options depending on each situation in the market and letting yourself be helped by expert advisors who facilitate decision-making on such an important aspect in the life of any person such as applying for a mortgage “, adds this expert.

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