In recent months, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has repeatedly stressed that he is seeking a fresh start with the countries of the European Union in order to help his country’s economy get back on its feet after Brexit. The negative consequences of the exit for the island are becoming increasingly clear to the British people.
The Brexit promise that fewer refugees would come to the British Isles after the end of EU freedom of movement has not been fulfilled. In 2023, 685,000 people came to Britain as net immigrants, significantly more than the 212,000 per year that the Conservative government wanted to keep below in its 2019 election manifesto.
Because some rules on the island are now less strict, the rivers are more polluted and the quality of food in the UK is poorer. Important limits, such as those for chemicals, no longer apply on the island or have not been adapted to the new EU regulations. Added to this are the devastating effects of bureaucracy and red tape since Brexit.
Experts estimate that small and medium-sized companies in particular have lost 25 to 30 percent of their trade as a result of the Brexit. Britain’s exports to the EU have fallen by 23 billion pounds per quarter, which corresponds to a decline of four to five percent of gross domestic product. Studies also show that the variety of British export goods has decreased. And the negative effects of the trade agreement between Britain and the EU have become increasingly more pronounced over the years.
For many experts who spoke out against Brexit in 2016, none of this is a surprise. They predicted this scenario. And in a way, it also aligns with another mantra of the newly elected Labour government, which is currently telling the British people again and again that things will get worse before they get better.
Closer cooperation with the EU, said the Prime Minister, could now help to boost growth. The Labour Party believes that improvements could be achieved, for example, through a veterinary agreement, mutual recognition of standards and professional qualifications or the facilitation of youth exchanges, as was said at the party conference in Liverpool.
The problem: This small-scale rapprochement will have little impact on economic growth on the island, as experts point out. The main costs of Brexit in Great Britain still arise from the Kingdom’s exit from the European single market and the customs union. As long as the Labour government rules out re-entry, the scope for agreements remains very limited.
In other words, closer relations between London and Brussels are very important and possible in many areas. But they are unlikely to bring real benefits to the British economy. The longer Britain is out of the EU, the further the alliance’s rules will deviate from London’s ideas. Britain has another problem: the impression in the EU is that the government does not know exactly what it wants and has unrealistic ideas about what is possible. Another reason for the scepticism from Brussels’ perspective is the fact that no one knows how long the Social Democratic Party will stay in power and – perhaps even more seriously – what will happen after that.
It is understandable that Keir Starmer does not want to be suspected of wanting to reverse Brexit. After all, the British have little desire for a new referendum. He also does not want to offend voters who once voted for Brexit. But to pretend that he can achieve a lot economically by moving closer to the EU is not credible. The red lines remain a problem.
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