The recovery of the car market has prevented electric cars from reaching a record percentage of the new car market, and electric cars still occupy 10% of new cars.
State support for the purchase of electric cars has been in effect for more than a year. This has certainly helped in part to maintain growth rates, which are once again higher than previously forecast. Along with the increase in the number of electric cars, the number of charging stations is increasing rapidly.
2023 were registered in Latvia on July 1 5’101 electric car (BEV) (+79% YoY), 62 electric buses (+5%), 151 electric light trucks (+66%), 43 electric quadricycles (+13%), 1,046 electric mopeds ( +10%) and 104 electric motorcycles (+70%). Together are registered in Latvia 6’507 electric vehicles (+61%).
Electric cars part of the new registrations
2023 2nd quarter new electric car registrations broken down in more detail:
BEV: 522 registrations (+96.2% YoY, 8.7% quarterly registrations) (+ 218 used + 17 light trucks (13 new + 4 used))
PHEV: 114 registrations (+40.7%, 1.9%)
Total: 636 (+126%, 10.6%)
10% for 3/4 of a year
The car market in Latvia has finally recovered from Covid-19 and Russia’s war in Ukraine. In this quarter, a record number of new cars has been registered since 2015, when Uzladēts.lv follows the statistics. A total of 6,017 new cars have been registered, which is 18% more than in the 2nd quarter of 2019, when 5,097 cars were registered.
The improvement in statistics for other cars has prevented a proper assessment of the rise of electric cars, which, although only 10% of the quarter’s volume, have continued to grow the numbers steadily. In the last four quarters, new BEV registrations have been as follows – 297 (6.5% of quarterly new car registrations), 376 (8.9%), 416 (9.1%) and 522 (8.7%).
Distribution of new car registrations by energy type until 2023. for the 2nd quarter
In a “typical” quarter, 522 BEVs would be around 13%, adding another 3% for 114 PHEVs would give us more than 15% of the registrations that await us, if not next quarter, then the next.
With the final EU decision to ban internal combustion engine machines from 2035. we can expect that the statistics of electric cars in Latvia will also jump to the dominant position among new cars in a few years and around 2030. it will be more interesting to observe the disappearance of gasoline (as the last representative of internal combustion engine energy) from the statistics. After for ACEA data 2023 In the first half of the year, fully electric cars (BEVs) occupied 12.9% of the European Union’s new car market, and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) – 7.4%, in total – 20.3%. If we also include non-chargeable hybrids, electrified cars in the EU accounted for 45.2% of the new car market.
Quarterly newcomers
The first heavy has been registered! Volvo FH Electric! In this quarter, 4 more BEVs that have not been seen in Latvia until now were registered in Latvia – Cenntro Logistar, Garia Melex N50, Lexus RZ450E and Toyota BZ4X. The current top leader, the BMW i3, has accumulated 35 registrations during these three months, which has allowed the Nissan Leaf to come within 1 registration distance, but the Tesla Model 3 is fast approaching, preventing the Leaf from feeling quite comfortable in the title of the most popular electric car.
If in Europe Tesla Model Y is the most popular car (not only electric) in the first quarter of the year and in the first half of the year, then no electric car in Latvia is approaching the top of the chart yet. However, among the electric cars themselves, there is a clear leader – Tesla Model Y with 82 registrations is the most popular electric car in this quarter. It is followed by Tesla Model 3 with 69 registrations, Škoda Enyaq iV – 53, Volkswagen ID.4 – 50, Hyundai Kona and Nissan Leaf both with 43 registrations, sharing the title of 5th most popular EV this quarter.
Although gas-powered cars have seen an increase in popularity, overall this has come at the expense of petrol cars. Among new cars, gasoline currently dominates with 69.4% of the market, diesel occupies 18.0%, electric is 8.7% (10.6% including PHEV) and gas is 0.0% (2.0% including gasoline hybrid). However, light commercial vehicles have to catch up. The picture there is very sad – diesel dominates with 95.1% of the market, gasoline occupies 3.8%, electricity is 1.0% and gas is 0.0% (0.1% together with gasoline hybrid).
Distribution of new registrations of light commercial vehicles (N1) in Latvia according to the energy used until 01.04.2023:
1) Diesel dominates with 95.1% of the market
2) Gasoline occupies 3.8%
3) Electricity is 1.0%
4) Gas is 0.0% (0.1% together with gasoline hybrid) pic.twitter.com/mKalMczhaS— 🇺🇦 Uzladets.lv ⚡🔋 (@Uzladets_lv) August 21, 2023
It may not look realistic at the moment, but considering that the EC has decided that new registrations of internal combustion engines will no longer be allowed, we can assume that between 2026 and 2030, electric cars will dominate both light passenger and light commercial vehicles.
Forecasts
Since we have reached the limit of 5,000 electric cars, which was predicted so far, it is necessary to start looking at the next reference point, 1% of the car fleet, or 7,300 electric cars. The exponential trend curve over previous years’ data predicts that there will be 7,300 electric cars in mid-2025 (all electric vehicles will be around 12,000 at that time). Considering that 3 good quarters would be enough to reach this figure, we can say that this forecast is very pessimistic. However, if the exponential curve is forced to use only data from 2018, then it predicts that there will be 18,000 electric cars in the middle of 2025 (ETL – 20,000), which seems much more likely. For comparison – There are currently 9,538 EVs in Lithuania.
We can only guess how many electric cars will be registered in Latvia in 2030, but the list below summarizes some of the guesses:
AS Latvenergo – 60,000 (8.2%) Eleport – 100,000 (13.7%) Latvian National Development Plan* – 14,570 (2%) (*2027) Exponential curve – 46,000 (6.3%) ) Exponential curve that takes into account data starting from 2018. – 145’000 (19.8%) Constant 81.3% (average of the last 4 quarters) increase – 246’911 (33.8%) exponential curve of BEV development until 2030
Those who follow the statistics published by Uzladēts.lv already know that reality is almost always better than what the exponential curve predicts. For example, the exponential curve a year ago predicted that in 2030 there will be 30,000 electric cars, and a year before – 18,500. The changes over the years are remarkable. Which forecast to believe? A constant 81% increase is unlikely to materialize, but the positive trends of previous years suggest that it will be better than Latvenergo’s forecast.
Latvian electric car fleet by manufacturer
And it looks like the infrastructure will be in place. At the moment it looks like gan vista, gan ola (cars and charging infrastructure) have arrived in Latvia. Now the big question is when the electric car will conquer the top of the best-selling cars in Latvia. It is only necessary to accumulate a little more than 500 registrations for one of the models during the year, which would be about 1/6 of the electric car registrations expected this year. Right now it looks like it could be a Tesla Model Y, but not this year or next year.
If you notice an error in the article, let us know about it by highlighting the reverse text and pressing Ctrl+Enter. Thank you!
0 0 votes
Evaluation of the article
Tags: Audi, Hyundai, Kia, Latvia, Nissan, Renault, Škoda, statistics, Tesla, Toyota, charging, Volkswagen
Continue Reading
2023-08-22 07:55:59
#electric #cars #2nd #Thu #analysis
