International•3 Dec ’23 12:01Author: Mark van Harreveld
Peace with Vladimir Putin is not possible in the short term, at least not on Russian terms. This is what Kremlin expert and creator of the podcast ‘In Moscow’s Shadow’ Mark Galeotti says in BNR Perestrojkast. Putin’s peace is unacceptable for Ukraine, the Ukrainian peace conditions go too far for Putin and he has no prospect of an exit acceptable to him. Finally, Putin has painted himself into an ideological corner.
To start with the latter: asked where this war will end, Galeotti says that Putin does not have a single plan or strategy for Ukraine. He invaded the country and thought it would fall into his lap like ripe fruit. “That didn’t happen, and it’s not going to happen,” Galeotti said. A colossal blunder, but according to Galeotti Putin is incapable of any critical self-reflection. He increasingly sees Ukraine as a ‘proxy’ for the West ‘instead of recognizing that he made a blunder because he did not understand Ukraine’.
‘Russians do not believe that their existence is threatened by what is happening in Ukraine. They’re starting to get tired of it.’ ‘Such polls prove that they do not accept that story, although they do not take to the streets – that is not possible in the police state that Russia is now – there is a lot of discussion around the kitchen table.’ Kirill Kudryavtsev / AFP (ANP / AFP)
Existential struggle against the West
With this great struggle against the imperialist West that threatens Russia’s existence (but which is being fought on Ukrainian soil, hence the proxy), Putin has, according to Galeotti, provided himself with a central theme with which he legitimizes himself. “His regime used to be legitimized by material prosperity,” says Galeotti: “shiny things, iPhones and holidays to Turkey.” In return, Russian citizens did not get involved in politics and most Russians thought that was a good deal. But now things have turned around: prosperity is waning and many Russians, according to Galeotti, know perfectly well that things are going to get worse.
Putin looked for and found this new legitimacy in a Russia that is like a fortress besieged by the West in which every Russian stands firmly for their homeland. However, that patriotic narrative has one scary downside: anyone who is not a patriot is a traitor. And according to Galeotti, every Russian knows “what we do with traitors.”
Russians are tired and want to negotiate
Polls show that an increasing number of Russians are in favor of negotiations and less and less believe Putin’s narrative of “a great existential struggle against the evil Western conspiracy,” Galeotti says. According to him, Russians do not believe that their existence is threatened by what is happening in Ukraine: “They are starting to get tired of it.” ‘Such polls prove that they do not accept that story, although they do not take to the streets – that is not possible in the police state that Russia is now – there is a lot of discussion around the kitchen table.’
No exit
Many people are inclined to think that the war continues because Putin is not offered an exit by the West. Galeotti is not fond of that idea. ‘After all, an exit strategy essentially implies: what concessions do we have to make? And let’s face it: these are not the concessions we can make, these are not our concessions that should be given.” Galeotti means that it is Ukraine that must decide under what conditions the war will end and under which peace can be concluded.
Also read | ‘NATO must continue to support Ukraine, otherwise Putin will win’
Interesting in this context is the Western pressure exerted on Kiev. According to Galeotti, this is not pressure to start peace negotiations, but pressure to start talking. ‘This is not the time for peace negotiations. As it stands now, Putin doesn’t think he needs to talk unless he gets a generous offer.”
Because the Russian conditions are of course well known: Crimea, the occupied territories in the southeast and a neutral, demilitarized Ukraine that will not become a member of NATO and that will not become a member of the EU. Which lists five things that are completely unacceptable for Kiev. “If Zelensky accepted that, he would probably be impeached immediately.”
Moderate tone
But what does the West want to persuade Ukraine to do? According to Galeotti, the pressure on Kiev is more about thinking. ‘Some Ukrainian peace proposals, such as that Putin should answer before a war crimes tribunal, are unrealistic. There is a difference between offering Putin an exit strategy and a loaded gun with which to shoot himself in the head. Negotiations will only take place when something fundamental changes on the battlefield, Galeotti thinks.
2023-12-03 11:01:20
#Putin #acknowledge #blunder
