Why did Putin and the Kremlin actually choose to invade Ukraine in February 2022? It is a question many still wonder. Nettavisen has previously mentioned a survey, which showed that the Russian population believed the authorities’ desire was to “liberate the citizens” of the Donbas region in Ukraine. The second most answered “don’t know”, and the third most common answer was that they thought the Kremlin wanted to “exterminate fascism/Nazism in Ukraine”.
Putin himself has changed his explanation several times, but has consistently stuck to the words “liberation” or “denazification”.
– Ever since the war was started, the danger has been great that Putin has gone so far with this false narrative about why the war is necessary, writes NUPI researcher Julie Wilhelmsen in the book “The War in Ukraine”.
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When Nettavisen asked Guri Melby in November what she thought were Putin’s motives and thinking, the Liberal leader summed it all up in one word: “madness”.
– Ukraine is one of Europe’s largest countries, with one of Europe’s largest defense forces, she elaborated.
Putin’s choice of words
But what does Putin really think himself, deep down? Does he believe in his own liberation narrative? Only he himself knows for sure, but during a recent TV broadcast the Russian president used a word he is not in the habit of using:
– As far as the negotiation process is concerned, the attempt to get us to give up the areas we have conquered is… well, that is impossible. Everyone understands that it is impossible. The power circle in Kyiv understands it, and the Western elite understands it. Everyone understands that, Putin said.
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Putin thus used the word “conquered” when he spoke about keeping eastern and southern Ukraine, a word with a far more forced sound than “liberated”. This causes, among others, Anton Gerashenko, an adviser in the Ukrainian Ministry of the Interior, to speculate whether this was on purpose or an accident:
Putin openly spoke about what Russia conquered in Ukraine instead of his usual rhetoric about “liberation” or “denazification”.
Was it deliberate or a slip of the tongue? Your thoughts? pic.twitter.com/bYPf505ZAT
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) January 16, 2024
– Can’t remember that Putin has used the word
Kristian Åtland, chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI), has also seen the clip. He speaks Russian and has published a number of studies of Russian defense and security policy:
– I was also surprised by Putin’s use of the word “zavojevanija” (“conquests”). I do not recall that the Russian president has previously used this word in official contexts. It is difficult to say for sure whether it is a pretext, or indicates a shift in the Kremlin’s rhetoric. I would not rule out that the latter is the case, i.e. that the rhetoric on the Russian side is about to change, says Åtland to Nettavisen.
Putin’s choice of words took place when he apparently spoke freely, without a script. Åtland notices this.
– It seems that Putin is less restrained than before when he talks about the “special operation” in Ukraine. This particularly applies when he is engaged, and not just reading out a prepared script. For example, on several occasions he has called the operation a “war”. He did that for the first time in December 2022. Now he is talking about the importance of Russia keeping the areas that they have “conquered”, sums up Åtland, and adds:
– Such wording is more in line with the realities of the current conflict than the terms used in the early phase of Russia’s full-scale invasion, for example “denazification”. The purpose of Russia’s war is, and has always been, territorial expansion, i.e. the conquest of the territory of a neighboring country. If Russia was able to do that, they would have conquered all of Ukraine. Fortunately, they have not managed to do that, and there is little indication that they will ever manage to do so, but the goal has by no means been shelved.
Putin’s hope
The chief scientist points to Putin’s great hope right now:
– It is that Ukraine’s western supporters should scale back or phase out their military and financial support for Ukraine, and that persistent Russian terrorist bombing should cause the Ukrainian civilian population to turn their backs on President Zelensky. In today’s situation, it is more important than ever that both the Ukrainians and we in the West maintain our support for the regime in Kyiv, so that Russia does not succeed in its attempt to conquer its south-western neighbour, concludes Åtland.
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2024-01-19 05:49:13
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