MURCIA (EFE). After the hibernation period and the activity restrictions adopted to combat the pandemic, the real estate sector appreciates a certain recovery of the demand that could be accentuated in the second half of 2021 and stabilize prices.
But for this, it is necessary that the evolution of the epidemiological situation is positive and that it infects the economy, according to experts consulted by EFE.
According to CBRE estimates, 2020 could close with a decrease in total housing transactions of around 30% or 35% compared to the previous year -which would mean 400,000 homes sold- while for 2021 a “slight recovery is expected. “, with an increase of 20% -475,000 homes-.
However, from the Federation of Real Estate Associations (FAI) they warn that economic uncertainty will make buyers “more prudent and cautious”, which will lengthen sales times and could influence prices.
“If the effectiveness of the vaccine does not materialize and the health and economic crisis lengthens over time, owners will be more inclined to make adjustments, especially in areas where the price has risen the most in recent years, or in areas of less demand “, explains José María Alfaro, general coordinator of FAI.
However, these possible readjustments will not be the same in all seats or in all types of product.
Experts agree that the price of used housing is more susceptible to falling, as it is more influenced by the economic and labor situation, and many owners could be forced to sell their homes at tighter prices to meet the mortgage .
From CBRE they expect that in 2021 there will be an increase in prices of almost 1% -especially from the second half of the year- after experiencing falls this year of between 2 and 4%.
“The adjustments in new housing will be testimonial and in markets oriented to the second residence. The adjustment in the second hand will be a consequence of the deterioration of the labor market, the need for sale by the owners and a greater supply”, explains Samuel Population, National Director of Residential and Land at CBRE.
Fall in foreign demand
The most up-to-date information from the General Council of Notaries reflects an average decrease of 37.4% year-on-year in the sale of housing by foreign buyers in the first half of 2020.
According to the appraiser Instituto de Valores, these data reflect the impact that restrictions to travel between countries and the uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic in the Spanish real estate market have had.
“In 2021, uncertainty will continue to be present in the activity of this group. This slowdown in transactions could continue as long as the restrictions continue,” they warn.
Less housing production
According to the report ‘The residential sector in Spain’, prepared by the consulting firm Colliers, housing production will be affected by the tightening of financing conditions for new projects.
Thus, in 2021 we could see a reduction in the activity of homes started by 30% compared to 2019 with a production of around 70,000 homes per year, which means going back to levels of 2016, according to this source.
From CBRE, Samuel Population explains to EFE that, after the oversupply that occurred in the previous cycle, financial entities “have learned their lesson” and no longer grant financing without a minimum percentage of reserves.
“The promotions started before the arrival of the covid-19 continued their course due to the high number of pre-sales already made and required for the financing and viability of the project. However, most of the projects whose launches were scheduled as of March 2020, were postponed to 2021 “, he highlights.
In this sense, the experts consulted by EFE believe that in no case will new housing transactions equal or exceed the number of second-hand housing transactions, as happened in the real estate boom.
According to CBRE, the demand for new construction will represent between 10 and 12% of sales in 2021.
New needs
One of the main changes that the pandemic has brought to the real estate sector and that will continue in 2021 is the preference of clients for properties with large outdoor spaces, light, or extra rooms for teleworking.
According to the Institute of Valuations, “there has been a greater interest in new construction and single-family homes in the outskirts of large cities,” where properties tend to meet new demands to a greater extent.
Proof of this trend is that, in the third quarter of 2020, the sale of single-family homes accounted for 20.43% of total transactions, marking the maximum in the historical series, according to the College of Property, Personal and Property Registrars. Mercantile of Spain.
“In this pandemic, the consumer has made an evaluation of his home for the first time. He has analyzed his needs, has valued what he has and what is missing and has valued light, comfort, terraces, spaces each time more versatile and quality “, says the president of Caledonian, Enrique López Granados.
For his part, José María Alfaro highlights that the location factor when making the purchase decision “has decreased in importance” compared to factors such as size, light, terraces.
“This trend will also mark the new construction of homes for the future,” the general coordinator of FAI explains to EFE.
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