The rapid closing of the thermal power plant is more painful, but the social cost will be lower

Closure of Half of Coal Capacity by 2026 and Accelerated Transformation of Coal Regions: Analysis Reveals Social Price Will Be Lower

An analysis conducted by a team of researchers from the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski” has shed light on the potential consequences of the closure of half of the coal capacity by 2026 and the accelerated transformation of coal regions. Contrary to widespread claims that tens of thousands will be unemployed, the analysis suggests that the social price paid by the people will be lower if the green transition is not postponed.

The analysis presents three scenarios for the demographic and socio-economic development of the region until 2040. The first scenario proposes an accelerated energy transition with active and adequate support from central and local authorities, which involves closing half of the country’s thermal power plants and stopping coal usage by 2035. The second scenario considers an accelerated energy transition without public support, while the third scenario suggests a delay in the energy transition and the preservation of thermal power plants until 2038, as advocated by politicians and trade unions in coal-dependent regions.

However, the third scenario would require a derogation from the European Commission for the greenhouse emissions emitted by the sector, as well as the continuation of subsidies for these capacities. This would burden public spending, lead to higher electricity prices, and hinder reforms and innovations in the sector.

According to Prof. Georgi Burdarov, one of the authors of the study, the scenario with an accelerated transition and financial and administrative support is the most suitable. However, he highlighted a significant problem – the lack of communication between the state government, local authorities, and the people in the coal complex region. Burdarov emphasized that people in the region only receive information about the green deal through the media and the internet, with no direct communication from the authorities.

Even municipal authorities in Stara Zagora, Radnevo, Galabovo, and Nova Zagora lack clarity about the implications of the green transition, as revealed in in-depth interviews. This lack of understanding, combined with broken communication, has resulted in growing emigration attitudes and distrust in the concept of a fair transition.

Burdarov believes that any delay in the energy transition will worsen the situation and increase costs. However, a survey conducted by “Gallup International Balkan” last fall showed that 56% of respondents would prefer to keep coal plants longer, while only 21% believe thermal power plants should be closed. Parvan Simeonov, a representative of the sociological agency, attributed this sentiment to mistrust and social fears overshadowing concerns for health and the environment.

Simeonov highlighted the skepticism among the public, stating that many people do not believe in the feasibility of transitioning to photovoltaics or that there is a clear plan in place. He also emphasized the profitability of the coal sector, questioning why it is being phased out.

Dimitar Sabev, another expert, stressed the need for a well-planned and financially supported transition to avoid major regional upheavals when the “Maria Iztok” complex is closed. However, due to a parliamentary decision to preserve the right of thermal power plants to pollute, the European recovery and sustainability fund has been blocked, resulting in the loss of 100 million euros for the regions of Stara Zagora, Pernik, and Kyustendil.

Sabev acknowledged the seriousness of the potential loss of 40,000 jobs but noted that Bulgarian cities have experienced similar challenges in the 1990s. He warned that delaying the transition would only make recovery more difficult in the future. Sabev also highlighted the current environmental impact of the coal complex, which leads to pollution and the loss of approximately 1,000 lives each year.

The analysis provides valuable insights into the potential consequences of the closure of coal capacity and the need for effective communication, support, and planning to ensure a just transition for the affected regions.

What strategies can the Bulgarian government implement to effectively communicate and engage with local communities in the process of transitioning to cleaner energy sources, ensuring transparency and minimizing resistance

Towards the government and the green transition.

The analysis also emphasized the importance of comprehensive support measures for coal regions undergoing transformation. These measures should include retraining programs and investments in alternative industries to ensure a smooth transition for affected workers. Additionally, the report highlighted the need for transparent and effective communication strategies to inform and engage the local communities in the process.

The findings of this analysis challenge the narrative that the closure of coal capacity and the transition to green energy will lead to widespread unemployment and social upheaval. The study suggests that with proper planning, support, and communication, the social price paid by the people can be minimized and the transition can be a more positive experience.

Renewable energy sources have become increasingly competitive and cost-effective in recent years, making coal less profitable and environmentally unsustainable. As countries around the world commit to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and combatting climate change, the phase-out of coal power becomes a necessary step.

Bulgaria, as a member of the European Union, is also obligated to reduce its emissions and transition to cleaner energy sources. By embracing the green transition and providing adequate support to affected regions, Bulgaria can not only meet its environmental commitments but also create new opportunities for economic growth and job creation in renewable energy sectors.

It is essential for the Bulgarian government to take into account the findings of this analysis and consider the long-term benefits of a well-planned green transition. By addressing the concerns and needs of coal regions and providing adequate support, Bulgaria can pave the way for a sustainable and prosperous future.