The question is not if but when London hospitals will collapse

The British capital is currently the epicenter of the corona pandemic in Europe. A four-figure sketch of a crisis.

813 new hospital admissions

Prime Minister Boris Johnson in November encouraged every Briton to celebrate Christmas as normally as possible, with up to two other households in a bubble. Although the capital ended up in a stricter regime just before the holidays, the admissions of the London hospitals now show how dangerous that call from the prime minister has been.

For the holidays, 680 new Covid patients were admitted daily. The extra contagious variant already put pressure on healthcare at the time, and the consequences of family gatherings were added to that.

A good week after Christmas, the number of daily admissions in London rose to 977 (January 6). Last Friday given the latest state of affairs by the English National Health Service (NHS): 813 Covid patients in a bed in a London hospital.

On January 10, a total of 7,494 Londoners were in a hospital with the virus, an increase of more than 50 percent in less than two weeks.

Also read From ‘Saving Christmas’ to a hard lockdown. How could things go so wrong with the British?

1,500 beds short

Healthcare administrators look ahead and fear a disastrous overload. “This is the most dangerous moment in the pandemic yet,” Chris Whitty, the government’s top medical adviser told the BBC. “Only go outside if you really have to.”

From a PowerPoint presentation held by NHS Director Vin Diwakar and which fell into the hands of trade magazine Health Service Journal shows how dire the situation is. Even in the most favorable scenario, where the virus is not proliferating at its worst and where authorities are able to set up emergency hospitals, the question is not if, but when the concern gives way, Diwakar said.

By January 19, in the most optimistic scenario, there will be 9,500 Covid patients in London hospitals. To this are 7,460 other sick people. Diwakar assumes a total demand of 17,100 beds, while with all the emergency measures only 15,600 beds are available. That is a shortfall of 1,500. In predictions where the virus is spreading harder, the bed shortage will increase to between 2,900 and 4,400 beds.

Neighbors infected between 246 and 2219

Corona is a virus that exposes inequality. This is once again apparent from the large differences in contamination figures in and around London. In South Park, a neighborhood in the poorer borough of Redbridge, 2,219 out of 100,000 residents tested positive last week. In the working classIn neighborhoods, multi-generational families often live in small houses and people have jobs that require them to go outside.

The window cleaners and security guards are daily in the metro on their way to the deserted headquarters of banks and companies in the city center. The office staff work from home or are on mostly paid leave.

There is a large overlap between the neighborhoods with the highest contamination rates and the neighborhoods with poverty problems and overweight. In richer districts, the consequences of the pandemic are limited. In the affluent central area of ​​Knightsbridge, Belgravia and Hyde Park, only 246 out of 100,000 residents tested positive last week.

2 million vaccinees

The English lockdown that Johnson declared to fix his Christmas sin is certainly being observed in London. But there are more cars and pedestrians on the street than in March and April of last year, during the first period of social restrictions. More parents suddenly feel that they have a crucial profession and still send their children to school. There is corona fatigue, but also the hope that a way out is near. In just over a month, British nurses have distributed more than two million vaccines. And this week the injection program must gain even more momentum. Rows of over-80s are waiting at GPs and vaccination centers to be vaccinated. Two hundred thousand Britons have to be injected every day.

Also read: UK gives more people first corona pepper, postpones second

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson from Imperial College said last weekend that the vaccines, combined with the speed at which the virus is now spreading, will ensure that London will enjoy some protection from herd immunity in the not too distant future. “I think the rate of infections will slow,” said Ferguson The Times. He estimates that 25 to 30 percent of Londoners have already been infected.

Government adviser Whitty expects that London will eventually recover. But before that, the situation will be grim. “The NHS staff are doing their best. We are very grateful to them, but there are limits to what is possible, ”he wrote on Sunday in an opinion piece. There will be deaths that could be avoided under normal circumstances, he concludes gloomily.

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